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Technology Stocks : Broadcom (BRCM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rarebird who wrote (2073)	6/25/1999 8:23:00 PM
From: Keith A Walker	Respond to of 6531

Rarebird, here is a safe investment idea: desalination plants in Saudi Arabia. Broadcom=risk, so tell me something new.

To: Rarebird who wrote (2073)	6/25/1999 8:40:00 PM
From: hunchback	Respond to of 6531

OT- thought I was on the GPM thread : ) Gold is good long term, but I can't say that I've made 10,000% on my gold (yet) like Broadcom. Here's a good commentary on the SP 500 from Steven J. Williams (mind you he is bearish) Be sure and go to his site to see the graphs. Scenario I is our most preferred count. Fundamentally, this count may mean a lower-low on Friday and retracement rally's on Monday and Tuesday before any announcement from the FOMC meeting. Then, if the Fed raises interests rates higher than 1/4%, the shock and market reaction becomes the (red) waves 3,4,5 down to SPX 1250 to complete the pattern. Scenario II is similar to the Scenario I except that it is much more bearish with Friday having a very strong selloff of perhaps SPX -40 points (DJIA -300). Scenario III will eventually trade down to SPX 1260 area, but only after being postponed for one to two weeks. The only fundamental backing for this scenario would be if the Fed raises rates only 1/4% and since the market already expects this, the rally continues onward to make the higher-high at "e". Later, another non-FOMC event shocks the market into another nosedive... perhaps a cluster of corporate earnings warnings. In all three scenarios presented above, the larger CyclePro forecast remains with the 1929 correlation which is a 2-month blowoff rally that carries the markets 15-20% higher, ie: SPX 1400 and DJIA 12000. geocities.com

To: Rarebird who wrote (2073)	6/25/1999 9:54:00 PM
From: DOUG H	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 6531

<<<I know many of you have no respect for history and feel that we are in a new paradigm of investing. But I also know that he or she who ignores history is doomed to repeat its tragic lessons. The XAU has almost always led the Shiny Yellow Metal into>>>> Rarebird, I appreciate your thoughtful post, it would have been better had you refrained from attacking Patsy but, oh well. Not everyone is as dumb as you think, as your probably not as smart as you think you are. Markets have a way of humbling the arrogant. You have gone to great lenght to detail your gains, what can you tell me about your losses, or am I being led to believe that they don't exist. I'll tell you mine if you tell me yours. <gg> I agree that the "head in the sand" approach leaves you exposed in other areas and I am quite cautious about current market conditions. Thank God for GTC stoploss orders. Regarding market crashes of the past, I believe 1929 was brought on by rampant margin buying, where everyone and there brother were borrowing every $ they could get their hands on to throw at the market. This bull market has been driven by declining inflation, declining interest rates, improved worker productivety, and the end of the cold war. These are fundamentals which build real value. We may be seeing those fundamentals change as the work force becomes depleted, commodities become more scarce, and just plain old "consumer spending like theres no tomorrow" goes on unabated. 1987 was exacerbated by computer program selling ( hence the curbs of today). But how long did it take for the market to recover? While history does indeed repeat itself quite often, or as Mr Lefevre writes "all the time". He must also concede, that tomorrow is "the great unknown" hence the term "risk". My risk is that my portfolio of stocks will decline significantly and never regain their value, your risk in regard to gold is the same. I wish you no ill will. It raises my asset value not one dollar. Good evening to you and the best of luck to you in your investing. D.H.