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Technology Stocks : CheckFree Holdings Corp. (CKFR), the next Dell, Intel? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Erik T who wrote (7199)6/26/1999 4:04:00 AM
From: Erik T  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 20297
 
>>>(CKFR) has signed up more than fifty of the nation's top billers, representing more than a half-billion monthly bills. He said the Company expected to double the number of electronic billers in the next fiscal year as part of the effort to attract as many subscribers as fast as possible.

>>>"We can expect to collect on the order of $50 a year for each mature Internet portal subscriber..."

Nowhere in their recent release do they talk about revenues from these top billers, only from subscribers.

Erik



To: Erik T who wrote (7199)6/26/1999 4:10:00 AM
From: Dwight E. Karlsen  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 20297
 
Erik: The way I interpret CKFR statements and comments re bill presentment is this: It must be that the billers want CKFR to foot the cost of the presentment side, in exchange for giving CKFR the contract for doing the payment side--a very good deal for the billers, IMO. In other words, evidently CKFR treats bill presentment as sort of a loss-leader. The billers view must be, "ok, you deliver the bill for a meager fee, and then if you can handle the payment processing into our coffers, then yes, we'll pay you well for that service. If you can do as much as possible to gain economies of scale, then so much the better, and the happier we are for the lower cost of the whole thing."

This interpretation fits with the statement CKFR makes in their 10-Q, which you quoted: "The growth in bill presentment is expected to drive growth in bill payment revenue through a more complete electronic offering, more so than providing a new stand alone revenue stream.

There is a strong hint in there that what CKFR is saying is, "our clients won't pay us diddle for presenting their bills, but they will pony up the dough for bill payment processing".

We should remember that, even if it costs a lot of money to create and deliver paper bills and statements, any large company has the process 99.9% automated. They've already made that investment, because they had to. We're talking warehouses with robotic forklifts driving around by themselves, loaded with stacks of paper and mail. That's what a company like Fidelity Investments has. Now consider AT&T's facilities.

They know how to mail bills and statements. The "killer app" here is to make it easy for the customer to pay the bill in a timely manner. How many times have you let that electricity bill sit on your kitchen table for a week, simply because you didn't feel like getting out the checkbook, envelope, return address label & stamp, then get the darn thing all ready and you forget to grab it in the morning to bring it to the mail-slot, so it sits another couple days. Time is money.

So that's why I think that CKFR only took in $10K for presenting bills in the last 9 months, but made a ton of money for the payment side.

The companies know how to mail a statement right on time, but they need CKFR to induce the customer to bring the money to the company in a timely manner. You are aware I'm sure that non-payment for a utility bill cannot be reported to a credit-rating agency, right? So utilities have very little leverage, except shutting off service to those who continually procrastinate on paying their bills. Or, hiring CKFR to assist in accounts receivable automation. (gee, didn't Shulman just give a speech on exactly this recently? Yes, he did).

If you think I'm full of $hit, just say so.



To: Erik T who wrote (7199)6/26/1999 4:16:00 AM
From: Erik T  Respond to of 20297
 
>>>In addition, Intuit is currently beta testing a new service on its Quicken.com Web site that allows consumers to receive bills online and pay those bills free of charge. This service, which utilizes the CheckFree E-Bill infrastructure, is scheduled for a full-market rollout in the third quarter of this year.

I missed the part that Intuit plans FREE E-Bill. Any ideas how Intuit will derive revenues? Advertising?

This, and the portals, really could disintermediate the banks. No wonder the banks are scared.

Erik