To: vestor who wrote (8068 ) 6/27/1999 12:14:00 PM From: John S. Baker Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 8359
Vestor, IMHO it depends upon one's time frame. For a momentum-trader or day-trader, I do believe that there are some statistical indications that ABTX will "do nothing" for a while ... though who knows long "a while" really is? For a day-trader, "a while" is maybe past lunch. For a momentum player, "a while" is perhaps a week or two. Here are some statistical indicators: CCI has been in a channel between +100 and -23 since May 5th, with one anomalous breakout on June 1st. Generally, as long as a stock stays between -100 and +100, no real breakout has occurred ... ie stuck in a trading rut. (Parameter: I happen to use 60-days for another project, so that's what is set up in my machine right now.) Working forward in time since the last volume spike (April 28th), a line drawn connecting the highest highs slopes downward from May 3rd high, touching the June 1st high, and ending up with the high last Friday makes a nice straight line, declining. At the same time a similar line drawn across the lowest daily lows is just about horizontal at about $6. One interpretation is that there is good support at $6 (which is born out by other measurements), but that buying pressure is dwindling. Conventional wisdom says that something will happen no later than the moment that the two lines come together, but that same conventional wisdom is not real clear on whether that something is a price increase or a decrease. Eye-balling the chart, it looks as if that moment will be in 2-3 weeks, if the lines hold. (Once the lines are broken, this form of prediction becomes useless.) The DMI indicator shows stuck in a trading channel since May 5th also. Money Flow -- there has been precious little money flowing into or out of ABTX over the past two months. Here, courtesy of www.bigcharts.com, is a plot of MFI -- nada! 206.146.143.80 The implication is that nobody is bailing out, but nobody is taking new major positions either. I anticipate increasing my holdings in ABTX as soon as I see a reasonable increase in MFI. What does this all mean? Your interpretation is as good as mine, but absent significant news, I am planning that ABTX will not jump significantly for a while. I check these measurements at least once a week, but for now my gambling money is in other stocks. Hope this helps. Alternative interpretations always welcome. JSb. Voluntary disclosure. Long since $3 with my basic pile of ABTX ... on my trading stash, I am currently not invested in ABTX.