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Technology Stocks : All About Sun Microsystems -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alok Sinha who wrote (17397)	6/27/1999 10:26:00 AM
From: Marvin Mansky	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 64865

Alok: Your analysis is similar to my thinking. But you know their is strong talk that the economy is slowing on its own (Housing industry is stalled due to high mortgage rates). So, 25 basis points (bsp) are built in to the long bond and the market already at these levels. You see, simply a 25 bsp rise in short term rates may cause a rally in the market. With great earnings, SUNW may trade up beyond 72. Also, short interest is high right now. This means that a great number of shares of stock are borrowed to support short positions. This is bullish, from both a contrarian standpoint and the fact that upon a bullish event, short covering will artificially accelerate the rise in stocks (especially the ones that are shorted). Also bullish, volume has been very low last week. Cash has built up and is waiting to pounce on equities. So Greenspan knows all this too. What will he do? Bearish factors include, rise in GNP, blip up in inflation, strengthening in Asia and Europe. firming up of oil prices. I look for this relief rally followed by a drop in August. Your analysis and predictions are pretty sound in my opinion. I am in cash for the most part, and am waiting to get more clarity on the direction of interest rates.

To: Alok Sinha who wrote (17397)	6/27/1999 1:25:00 PM
From: chunmun	Respond to of 64865

Alok and Marvin, thanks for your input. Much appreciated. with regards, chunmun

To: Alok Sinha who wrote (17397)	6/27/1999 1:59:00 PM
From: QwikSand	Respond to of 64865

I agree. If SUNW hits and holds 70 by Q1CY00 (not talking about one day spikes followed by selloffs) I think that will be good progress, given the major correction that is bound to happen in the second half of this year. As for earnings, Sun will do what they always do: report 1 or 2 cents better than estimates. Each quarter for the last couple of years, people on this thread have predicted blowouts and there has NEVER been a blowout. Look back...2 cents over is as high as they go. SUNW blowouts just don't happen. Given that SUNW already has a high multiple, and they deliberately manage away all upside earnings surprises, the stock price at this rich level can't do anything but grow slowly. Regards, --QwikSand