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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Les H who wrote (18624)	6/27/1999 8:39:00 PM
From: j g cordes	Respond to of 99985

OK.. we're done with the weekend stories looking forward to trading this week when Santa Greenspam says the country's been bad or its been good. There are a few reports prior to the meeting, but consensus as most agree, expects a tightening move of some sort and its the future bias expressed through FOMC Cliff Notes that will support or slip trading into July. I'm expecting a 1/4 point move Wednesday, a few complaining Fed Govenors, who would rather see long unemployment lines than general prosperity. Some supportive/protective talk will be promoted saying pre-emptive is better than emptive. The not talked about nut in this problem, is the bombing of Kosovo, how much taxpayer money it spent, which in my tally equals exactly 1/4 point inflation against the gross domestic product. All spending on war materials and maneuvers, moral or not, is tendered from public coffers. Carrying this forward, we should see over the next two years a tick up in interest rates of participating in rebuilding Kosovo EU countries, as that money also will come from their public coffers in the form of inflation. Think of it all as a massive public works project. This certainly is preferable to drawing lines in the sand. The most important political problem at the moment is how will the Russian presense in Serbia be managed. If it alienates then oil and division sits on the horizon, if they are incorporated into a higher participation solution then business interests will take the high ground over the residual communist military mindset. We will recover from this about the same time Asia recovers with its more competetive global business appetite. This will continue the low unemployment windfall we've been experiencing into 2002. The market's going much higher. Jim