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To: Mr.Fun who wrote (3232)6/28/1999 11:05:00 AM
From: LindyBill  Respond to of 54805
 
The company owns the toll gate for another 12 years.

It's my understanding that Q is tying up its users with contracts that extends indefinitely past the present patent cutoffs. They are constantly adding patents to the CDMA system that refine it and extend it as well.



To: Mr.Fun who wrote (3232)6/28/1999 3:01:00 PM
From: chaz  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 54805
 
A sincere thank you. Obviously I've not been paying attention to LU
as I should have, and I appreciate being put right about it.

In that time all CDMA devices will owe Q $6.

Did you omit some zeros, or am I missing something further?



To: Mr.Fun who wrote (3232)6/28/1999 10:45:00 PM
From: straight life  Respond to of 54805
 
"On QCOM: The company owns the toll gate for another 12 years. In that time, all CDMA devices will owe QCOM $6. Question - is that enough to justify the current valuation?
X% of N million devices times $6 = royalties
Y% of N million devices times ~$50 = ASIC customers
Z% of N million devices times ~$200 = QCOM made devices
X + Y + Z = 100%"


2 answers; first of all, you mis-state the business of QCOM by forgetting their (1)lucrative Omnitracs service business, #1 in its segment in the US and growing abroad, (2) their JV with MSFT (wirelessKnowledge) (3) their piece of G*.

The second answer is more nebulous; one day their overseas carrier operation is a drag... the next day they spin it off to shareholders, the spun stock goes from 6 to 20 dollars and we're all the wealthier because of it. WirelessKnowledge could become huge, their interests in Cinecomm (digital movies) could become huge... everything this superb engineering company has turned its hand to has worked well with the lone exception of infrastructure which they HAD to get into as they were launching a whole new digital communication standard and so HAD to supply all the solutions; ASICS, handsets, infrastructure; just to ensure that carriers would gamble on it.

What if they come up with CDMA on a chip and embed the chip in a new generation of PDAs and even intelligent refrigerators that wire a delivery order for milk to the grocer's computer, for one small example? Or vending machines that call the home office with reports on sales? Who knows what the future they are helping build will look like? My point is simply that you can't reduce QCOM to an equation of X+Y+Z= QCOM earnings; maybe you can with PD or IP but not here.



To: Mr.Fun who wrote (3232)6/29/1999 10:29:00 PM
From: DaveMG  Respond to of 54805
 
Mr. Fun,

On QCOM: The company owns the toll gate for another 12 years. In that time, all CDMA devices will owe QCOM $6. Question - is that enough to justify the current valuation?
and
Qualcomm is in an interesting position, and I agree that it could emerge as a wireless "gorilla" but I'm not sure the likely revenue streams justify the current stock price. Remember, patents have a life of 17 years, and QCOMs are already 4-5 years old. QCOM has not shown itself to be a good designer of products, just a good creator of basic technology.

When a guy with your profile and smarts , whose fund has a position in Nokia, puts it this way I can only conclude that you‘re with those who believe that QCOM will end up yielding most of the other CDMA business, ie ASICs and handsets , to the competition, leaving royalties as the only significant source of funds. I suppose at this point I should confess that this has been a frequent concern of mine.

But I wonder where the competition has been up until now? Has the market just been too small to bother with?

QCOMs' position seems to be strengthening contrary to what a lot of analysts have been saying would happen. I'm sure you're aware that the Nokia 6185 and 5170 CDMA phones are late, that BAM has sent them back for software fixes, Sprint has had troubles too. Motorola is still relying on Q for some ASICs through the Koreans. Both Nok and MOT got nice press for their big orders with Sprint and BAM respectively a few weeks back, but these orders pale before the exploding number of ASICs Q is shipping, somewhere between 12 and 15 million this quarter I believe.

Tim Luke of Lehman issued a research note the other day wherein he says “Upside in FY00 could come from discussions with key target accounts; Ericsson, Motorola, Kyocera & even Nokia potentially leading to new orders” Message 10237099.

Isn't it possible that QCOM is actually pulling away from the competition?

And where in technology investing can one say with any degree of certainty what will be happening in 5yrs let alone 10?

DMG



To: Mr.Fun who wrote (3232)7/14/1999 8:58:00 AM
From: KYA27  Respond to of 54805
 
Lucent Technologies Announces Breakthrough Optical Networking System
That Delivers High-Speed Data Networking
Through the Air

Global Crossing will be first to test

MURRAY HILL, N.J.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--July 14, 1999-- Using beams of light to transmit
information directly through the air, a breakthrough optical networking system from Lucent
Technologies (NYSE:LU - news) will dramatically boost the capacity of local data networks and
extend the reach of today's high-capacity fiber-optic systems.

Lucent's new WaveStar(TM) OpticAir(TM) system will use state-of-the-art lasers, amplifiers and
receivers that can be placed on rooftops or in office windows to transmit voice, data or video traffic
from point to point through the air. Designed by Bell Labs, the WaveStar OpticAir system will use
dense wave division multiplexing (DWDM) technology to increase network capacity in metropolitan
areas and campus environments where cost, geography or other constraints may make fiber
connections impractical.

Global Crossing will be first to test the system -- conducting field trials by December.

The first system to use DWDM technology directly through the air, Lucent's WaveStar OpticAir
system eventually will enable business customers and service providers to transmit up to 10 gigabits
(billion bits) per second (Gb/s) of information between locations. At this rate, customers will be able
to transmit the data contained on 15 CD ROMs through the air in less than a second. That's 65 times
more information than with today's radio frequencies.

''Lucent is committed to providing our customers with cutting-edge metro optical networking
solutions -- bringing photons not only to the desktop, but to rooftops, windows and ships at sea,''
said Gerry Butters, president of Lucent's Optical Networking Group. ''By adding this breakthrough
technology to our industry-leading portfolio, Lucent soon will be able to provide the power of
fiber-optics just about anywhere -- with or without the fiber.''

Capable of handling any form of network traffic (voice, data, video, etc.), DWDM allows carriers to
increase capacity by simultaneously transmitting different wavelengths -- or colors -- of light, each
carrying distinct streams of information.

Unparalleled bandwidth will break through local bottlenecks, open new markets

''Once again, Lucent is extending the bandwidth-expanding power of photons to local networks,''
said Wally Dawson, Senior Vice President at Global Crossing Development Ltd. ''If our testing of the
product meets expectations, it could offer a breakthrough method to help our global customers
bypass local bottlenecks and offer leading-edge services. Based on projections, no one else is even
approaching the amount of bandwidth that Lucent will bring to this exciting new market.''

Potential applications for the WaveStar OpticAir system include transmitting data between high-rise
office buildings, enabling naval ships to share huge amounts of information while in port, and
establishing temporary, high-capacity data links for special events.

''This high-capacity technology will give Lucent another optical solution to complement our
fiber-based systems and our broadband-wireless-access offerings,'' said Butters. ''We set out to
bring the power of photons to network environments where deploying fiber is just not practical. And
WaveStar OpticAir fits that niche.''

In certain applications, the WaveStar OpticAir system could be used in conjunction with Lucent's
SYSTIMAX® Structured Connectivity Solution (SCS) to provide enterprise customers with
ultra-reliable, high-speed data networks in campus and business environments. SYSTIMAX SCS is
Lucent's industry-leading in-building wiring solution.

New system is environmentally safe, highly reliable, modular in design

Unlike the tiny, high-density streams of light emitted by laser pointers, Lucent's WaveStar OpticAir
system will use ''expanded-beam'' lasers that meet all applicable environmental safety requirements.

Like other open-air transmission systems -- such as wireless -- the WaveStar OpticAir system will
meet industry standards for performance and reliability.

Implementing WaveStar OpticAir requires no spectrum licenses, and the system is easily upgradeable.
Its modular design will enable carriers to grow their networks as capacity requirements rise, and open
interfaces supporting equipment from a variety of vendors will help carriers protect the investment of
their embedded infrastructures.

Lucent is bringing this product from concept to market in just 18 months. The first release of Lucent's
WaveStar OpticAir system, supporting one wavelength at speeds up to 2.5 Gb/s, is expected to be
commercially available by March 2000. A four-wavelength system with a maximum capacity of 10
Gb/s for distances up to five kilometers is expected to be commercially available in the summer of
2000.

Building on Bell Labs' optical networking leadership

With more than 2,400 systems installed worldwide, Lucent is the global leader in DWDM technology.
According to KMI Corp., a leading market research firm, Lucent has the largest share -- 29 percent --
of the $2.2 billion global DWDM equipment market.

The WaveStar OpticAir system will use patent-pending technology. Bell Labs, which has garnered
more than 2,000 patents in optical technology alone, has been designing networks for 75 years -- yet
the pace of Bell Labs innovation has never been faster. In 1993, Lucent's TrueWave® fiber was the
first fiber specifically designed for high-capacity DWDM networks. In 1998, Lucent was first to
market with an 80-channel DWDM system, which can transmit up to 400 Gb/s of information over a
single fiber. For more information about Lucent's Optical Networking Group, please visit its Web site
at lucent-optical.com.

Lucent Technologies designs, builds and delivers a wide range of public and private networks,
communications systems and software, data networking systems, business telephone systems and
microelectronics components. Bell Laboratories is the research and development arm of the company.
For more information about Lucent Technologies, visit its Web site at lucent.com.

Note to Editors:

Lucent is hosting a media conference call concerning this

announcement. Wednesday, July 14, at 12 Noon Eastern Time.

Inside the U.S., Dial-in Number: 800-288-8960