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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: clochard who wrote (253)	6/28/1999 11:44:00 AM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

Steve, If we get this "melt-up" today and tomorrow, this may have boomerang effect of FOMC and Mr. G raising not only 1/4 point but also the discount rate. 1/2 point rise fed funds is outside chance to nip asset inflation in bud if window of opportunity is seized by FED and taken advantage of. Bonds would soar, and stocks would sell-off to supports. Supports then may or may not hold. If they hold, we then get the next leg up to 11,500 to 12,000. If supports break, 9,450 DOW and 1,220 SPX 1 or two day wash-out test in the cards and window of opportunity for good buys for quick trade. Need to keep open all possibilities. Best, J.T.

To: clochard who wrote (253)	6/29/1999 1:39:00 PM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19219

Steve, What was the name of that song by Prince? .. 1999... the lyrics go something like this: 2000, zero, zero, party oops, out of time; hey everybody lets party now till it's 1999.... The market wants to party, people feel good, want to spend witness consumer confidence: Early indicator Au contrare for future reference quote.bloomberg.com Some history about the markets during 68' and on: In end of Oct., 1968, after this report for record consumer confidence came out, the market was at 952, went to a high of 985 close within 1 month and one week in early Dec 68 for a 3.4% gain. Quickly reversed and corrected to 903 in late Feb 69 for a 8.5% hit. Peaked at 969 in Mid-may and turned down hard in June to 870 close late June 10.2% hit and 770 in Dec 69 for 22% hit from 12 month high. By late May of '70 we bottomed at close of 631 for 35% hit from peak of 985 in Dec '68. That is..... the rest of the story. fwiw Best, J.T.