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Technology Stocks : America On-Line (AOL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KeepItSimple who wrote (24281)	6/28/1999 12:34:00 PM
From: Sam	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 41369

You just don't get it, do you? You simply cannot comprehend that AOL, along with all the other internut stocks, is priced at insanely high levels. You've probably made money on the long side, so you can't imagine these stocks will ever go down and stay down for the count. Try clearing your mind and testing the idea of valuation. Buy puts. Don't let your tulip-mania profits disappear before your eyes. KIS, I could pose the same question to you. Let's see, if it was not for tech stocks (.com's included), what will lead this market into the next decade? Cyclicals, biotech, drugs, consumer apparel? No ... technology will be the revolutionary staging ground for the next leg up. While you focus on valuation, you fail to see the potential. When we invest in stocks, we are investing on the future prospects of a company. What will the company deliver 6 days, months or years from now? For technology in general, we're still in the 2nd inning -- we've got a long way to go. Many industries have already matured, in fact they are moving towards the internet to revolutionize and reenergize their business models. These "insanely valued" technology companies are changing the way we conduct our daily lives. Think about it ... years ago, did you ever think you would sit in front of a computer and talk stocks? And yet you will continue to use old valuation models that pertain only to the companies they we're originally created for -- companies that don't have the dynamics the techs can deliver. I've made a lot of money on .com stocks, and will continue to do so. If you want to believe that they will all fall down like dominos, so be it. Just keep in mind one thing in the coming months ... don't fight the tape. $am

To: KeepItSimple who wrote (24281)	6/28/1999 12:44:00 PM
From: im~ristine	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 41369

Watch it kissy! i think we are very close to a bottom, I went short!

To: KeepItSimple who wrote (24281)	6/28/1999 5:03:00 PM
From: David E. Taylor	Respond to of 41369

Kiss: "Try clearing your mind and testing the idea of valuation".... OK. Where's your rationale which puts a fair valuation of 20 on AOL by year end? I'd like to see it, since my valuation puts a minimum fair value on AOL at about 90, given its present subscriber base. The only way I could get down to a valuation of 20 is if AOL were to lose over 75% of its subscriber base by the end of the year. Apparently, so far the big fund managers agree, since they've been steadily soaking up everything available below 100. But if AOL losing a major chunk of the subscriber base is your rationale for 20, maybe you can enlighten us as to how you think that's going to come to pass by 12/99? David T.