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To: Tom Tallant who wrote (24381)	6/28/1999 3:10:00 PM
From: Jenne	Respond to of 41369

The Nirvana Scenario By James J. Cramer 6/28/99 2:42 PM ET The nirvana scenario's been leaking out. I think it is premature, and is being confused with reckless window dressing of favorites (which do not include the Net). But I will give it to you anyway. It goes like this: The Fed tightens 25 basis points. It then issues a statement saying that it is going back to neutrality. Then we get back to back weaker numbers from employment and purchasing, which takes us right to earnings season, which should be strong because the economy is strong. Wow. As much as I am a bull at heart -- I used to have a newsletter sent only to my folks called "Mr. Bullish" in 1981 -- this fabulous scenario seems a bit to rosy to me. I am sticking by my game plan that the hedge funds will be banging down the market ahead of the Fed and I am lightening up trading positions into today's strength. Sure, it is possible that everything works out well in the end. I put the odds as high as 35% to 40% that it could happen. But that's 60% to 65% that it doesn't. Too much for the trader in me to break into the cash vault. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------