To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (41124 ) 6/28/1999 8:31:00 PM From: pater tenebrarum Read Replies (2) | Respond to
Haim, i just looked at the CBOE put/call statistics myself...complacency reigns supreme in this market. i have closed out several long positions myself today, as i have come to doubt the 'melt-up' scenario more and more. as i have pointed out in my last p/c update on the MDA web site, the general assumption that the rate hike will 'clear the air' is a fallacy. if the bias remains as it is(which seems very likely) the uncertainties plaguing the market now will remain in place. i remember a rally following a rate hike in the early nineties, as the Fed was perceived to be on top of inflation. since right now there seems to be no inflation, the market will ask: why is the Fed hiking rates? answer: to bring the stock market down, even if they don't say so. AG can not spot the bubble, but he can spot inflation down the road? whoever wants to believe it and die happy, be my guest. investors would do well to remember the part of AG's speech where he stated that a crash would not necessarily bring the economy to it's knees...never mind that he is likely wrong about that (what else would bring the economy down?), this is what he believes.
