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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.T. who wrote (262)	6/29/1999 12:47:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

J.T., since anecdotal evidence suggests most wall street strategists are looking for a post-FOMC rally and speculators are buying calls hand over fist, i currently expect the market to trade down in the wake of the economic data you have listed. remember that the correction has not seen a heavy volume 'wash-out' day yet. regards, hb

To: J.T. who wrote (262)	6/29/1999 2:00:00 PM
From: J.T.	Respond to of 19219

If the FED really wants to be pre-emptive and send a message to wall street that it means business it will raise the highly symbolic discount rate 1/4 to 4.75% from 4.5%. 4.75% was where it was last fall when economy was strong like now prior to LTCM blow-up. If FED is interested in pricking asset inflation and 40% overvalued equity to bond model, it will raise discount rate 1/2 to 5% and be done with it. This is FED's window of opportunity, imho. Just some thoughts. Best, J.T.

To: J.T. who wrote (262)	6/30/1999 10:38:00 AM
From: J.T.	Respond to of 19219

Bond Market doesn't like strong Chicago Purchasing Managers Index; Came in at 60 vs. consensus estimate of 57.9. I highlighted this report as one of most important. This from MITA post 262: <<However, If FOMC announcement or another number like NAPM or Employment numbers foam of the mouth with robust strength immediate concerns of that 2nd or much more important psychological unexpected potential 3rd rate increase will send market reeling to test supports, go thru supports and maybe bring it back up. A two or three day market bargain on sale 10% so to speak. It is here where money will come to work and volume will swell. Market always does what is least expected of by gurus. The market has much to swallow this week and I hardly doubt it will all be in spades 100% friends of goldilocks to land of nirvana. I will bolden #'s and events I deem to be important: Weds June 30: is Leading Economic Indicators (10 Est) Chicago Purchasing Managers Index(10) FOMC Announcement(2.10 - 2.15) Thurs July 1: is Jobless Claims (8.30) Construction Spending (10) NAPM #'s (10) FOMC Minutes from 5/18 (2.00) Auto Sales Fri July 2: is Employment Report (8.30) Factory Orders (10) Best, J.T.