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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rande Is who wrote (8815)	6/29/1999 3:58:00 PM
From: Kevin Shea	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 57584

Rande.... I think it's pretty obvious that IPOs are hot again.... but with a difference.....the flyers seem to be ones offering high speed, networking, and the like... William made note of JNPR... I've recently played CMTN (system worked), dabbled in TJOB and NETO (system didn't work)... The "older" IPOs seemed to have been overlooked (e.g. AWEB), at least for now and I believe that the longer out they are the more limited the accuracy of the system.... we have discussed the fact that there are too many IPOs to select from, and this might be forcing people to concentrate on selected issues....e.g. there seems to be sentiment for Paul Allen deals. Just as there are too many stocks for longs there are too many stocks for short, and thus the result should be looser environment... shorts cannot hold everything down or put out every fire... that's why I think WITC screamed the way it did (IMO/BWDIK)... also the barneys hype alone cannot move every underwritten issue.... so something has to give... BANCHEE.... how successful has the QP signal performed....can you see any pattern in type of deal??price of issue?? underwriter, etc... I can undertake the volume studies ... but I need to limit it because a lot of it is still manual (cutting and pasting, etc).... if you have a list of suggested issues let me know...... IF (and this is a big if) we return to an IPO environment of the type we had a few months ago.. I think that the system will work... be aware that what worked once, need not work again! I have AWEB (which doesn't respond) and TURF as well as others such as KOOP, HSAC,

To: Rande Is who wrote (8815)	6/29/1999 4:09:00 PM
From: Jon Stept	Respond to of 57584

Hi Rande, I think the post-IPO and post-bigstory stock landscape is full of stocks without any wind to fill their sails. Many of them have yet to gain institutional interest because despite the promise, the institutions want to see more evidence. I think many of the stocks you mentioned have promise and would only see reignited interest if there is a story or trend so the stock will catch the interest of institutions and momentum traders. The question is... what will be the story? Earnings, buyout rumor or consolidation in the sector, research report.... Just my afternoon opinion. Jon :)