To: Planter who wrote (21254 ) 6/29/1999 4:31:00 PM From: Warren A. Wilbur, Jr. Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 40688
Pete: >>Boy, I just don't understand how we can compete with these big name companies.<< Let me answer your question with quote from Fortune : "Candice Carpenter runs an Internet company called iVillage that had revenues of $6 million in the past quarter and expenses of $24 million. That's right--the company spent four times as much money as it took in. In March, iVillage went public, to much enthusiasm from investors, who bid its stock price up 233% the first day. Its market value as of mid-May: $1.6 billion. This might seem nuts to you. And in fact iVillage, which runs several women's and family Websites, has become a controversial stock--one of those companies regularly trotted out by skeptics trying to make the point that the Internet investing boom is a soon-to-pop bubble. In the meantime, though, Candice Carpenter has $1.6 billion in market cap to play around with. "I think our valuation is a sign that investors are actually rewarding us for being aggressive," she says. "Because they will accept losses at this juncture, we are able to rapidly acquire other companies and really build market share. This is a land grab. You want to put your stakes in the most valuable property you can as fast as you can because it's not going to be there tomorrow." Carpenter's views are typical among Net executives. In the business media and in investing circles, the Great Net Stock Debate rages: Is Yahoo really worth $34 billion? Is Amazon.com really worth $23 billion? Is iVillage really worth $1.6 billion? (For columnist Andrew Serwer's take on this, see Street Life.) But the people who run those multibillion-dollar upstarts aren't paying much attention. They're too busy using the bounty that investors have bestowed upon them to raise cash, make acquisitions, and stake huge claims in the great Internet land rush. In the process they have created a sort of parallel business universe. >>>>>> A couple of years ago it was widely assumed that once a few entrepreneurs figured out how to make money on the Web, deep-pocketed giants like Microsoft and Disney would be able to move in and clean up. Well, those deep-pocketed giants are still trying, and some of them may yet come to dominate corners of the Net. But they're finding they have to play a game defined by people like Candice Carpenter--and by the investors willing to pay $70 a share for iVillage stock. In the Net universe, success follows a whole new set of rules. " Again : "...Well, those deep-pocketed giants are still trying, and some of them may yet come to dominate corners of the Net..." IMO no money can buy ProNetLink's experience, knowledge and driven management . Another point ref. VALUATIONS : Internet stocks aren't like other stocks. Figuring out whether any stock is reasonably priced is something of a crapshoot, but for most companies there are at least some widely agreed upon yardsticks: book value, current earnings, projected earnings growth. Internet companies have no tangible assets, they boast little or nothing in the way of earnings, and their future growth is impossible to predict reliably. So investors can't use their customary yardsticks. They have to either stay away or judge the Net stocks purely by making a guess about their potential to earn a lot of money sometime in the future. (To see how that's done in the case of Yahoo, see How Yahoo! Became a Blue Chip.) CMGI, the former textbook marketing company that has become the Berkshire Hathaway of Net investing, put $6 million dollars into the Website hosting firm Geocities over two years starting in 1996. "Geocities had no revenue for the first year and a half that we invested in it," says David Wetherell, CMGI's chief. "You can't value it on traditional metrics . You have to look at the drivers of growth. If you capture eyeball time, which Geocities obviously has done a great job of doing, you can monetize that eyeball time." Or someone else can. Geocities has yet to turn a profit, but it is in the process of being acquired by Yahoo, and the payoff for CMGI has been huge. Its stake in the firm is being converted into Yahoo shares valued at more than $1 billion. Wetherell's optimistic way of valuing Net stocks is clearly the one that prevails on Wall Street--for now, anyway. CMGI's stock price has risen almost 400-fold in five years. Yahoo is up almost 80-fold in three years; Amazon is up 45-fold in just two; and eBay is up 20-fold in just eight months. " And so it goes, Pete...Have a nice afternoon !