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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stephen who wrote (18813)	6/29/1999 5:02:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Stephen, from a risk/reward perspective i like bonds better here than stocks; as to sector allocation, the cyclicals could conceivably have another run. i say this because speculation in the related options seems to lean overly to the pessimistic side. a sector i would avoid based on the same idea are the pharmaceuticals. in spite of the horrible technical performance of the DRG index, speculators are betting heavily on the calls on the members of this index. this is usually a sign that weakness in the sector will persist for a while yet. of course a rising tide tends to lift all boats... btw, the long positions that i closed out today (AMGN,UTX,MSFT,IBM,SCH to name some) were sold after(among other things) taking into consideration the distribution of open option interest in these issues. it suggested that i will be able to buy these stocks back at cheaper prices come july expiration. seasonally july tends to be a strong month for stocks, and my assessment may yet turn out to have been wrong. however, no-one has ever gone broke taking profits. regards, hb