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Strategies & Market Trends : How To Write Covered Calls - An Ongoing Real Case Study! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Jonathan Thomas who wrote (11114)6/29/1999 7:34:00 PM
From: Herm  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 14162
 
NOVL

Hi Ryan,

I liked NOVL back when it was $9.00 and sleeping. I still like the
stock which is undervalued and still has a 20% annual growth rate. I
believe they will do a number on Windows-NT when the government puts
the screws to the Microsoft monopoly.

NASDAQ: (NOVL : $27) $9,425 million Market Cap at June 29, 1999
Ranks 734th in the Fortune 1,000 on Revenue & 517th on Profit.
Employs 5,800. Trades at a 15% Discount PE Multiple of 54.0 X, vs.
the 63.2 X average multiple at which the Networking SubIndustry is priced.

NOVL WEEKLY CHART
NOVL appears to be breaking to the up side with an unknown target
price. A positive reaction to Mr. G's comments tomorrow could easily
lift NOVL up to $28 or $30 before mass profit taking to the $22 lower
price support level.

iqc.com

NOVL DAILY CHART

Pretty much a similar up side potential to $28.

iqc.com

NOVL 30-MIN CHART

You can see a top at maybe $28.

iqc.com

CONCLUSION

Personally, I would prefer to hold the current CCs and take my
chances to be called out. With this NOVL runaway, I would load up on
long calls sideshows with the NOVL AUG 30s @ 1 1/8s expecting to cash
them out at say 2+. If that proved to be a successful sideshow I would
immediately buy the cheap PUTs to capture some pull back. The AUG 25s
PUTs would be about 1 at that point of NOVL at a price of $28. I would
happy with a 3/8s to 5/8s profit on the PUTs.



To: Jonathan Thomas who wrote (11114)6/30/1999 2:57:00 PM
From: NateC  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 14162
 
I am into NOVL strong now, Nut is 20 5/8. I am short 7 Aug 25 calls. The stock
has started to take off without my consent...:) Any ideas? I am thinking about rolling
up, but I think my best bet is to wait until more time value decays off the calls, and
wait until expiry.


Jonathan......I know you might want to hold NOVL......but you might consider letting it go for Augustexpiry.....you have a nice 20% return for that.....even tho it may be a runaway.

when I try to repeatedly roll up several of mine like this....I'vebeen burned....when the stock rides back down.

still, McMillan would advise you to roll up most probably.

Presumably you're working with a discount broker...you could be called out...and buy it back.

How much are the upstrike calls....might make a nice sideshow