SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Gary Wisdom who wrote (18839)6/29/1999 7:21:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 99985
 
Gary, i have noticed the inverse H&S on the nutz as well; however, i would like to see more than the paltry breakout Shaeffer describes, as it is a pattern that fails sometimes - see the transportation average shortly before the late july sell-off last year. the good performance of the sector lately is however something that supports the views of the bulls. the nutz, which trade solely on emotion, can be regarded as an emotional barometer of the market. if they act well, the market acts well. it is a sign of the times that rational thought is no longer applicable when determining this market's likely direction - it is all emotion and liquidity. as the latter is starting to dry up and the former shows signs of being somewhat extended, caution is probably advisable.

let me add a word to Bernie Shaeffer's view on the overall market (i do respect Shaeffer's research btw): during a recent investment conference in L.A., he stated that his main reason for being bullish was that "most people are worrying when this market will crash, nobody is asking when it will double or triple". now that is simply not true. a scant two weeks before he made that pronouncement it was argued in a WJS column that the Dow should be at 52,000 by 2014. a day later, two academics argued in the same column that the Dow should be at 36,000, not in a few years time, but TODAY, to correctly reflect the fair value of stocks. so i guess Shaeffer must have missed out on those gems of bull market propaganda. indeed investor's expectations with regards to future stock market returns are indicative of a late-stage bull market, where the performance of the past few years tends to be extrapolated ad infinitum.

regards,

hb