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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HairBall who wrote (18853)	6/30/1999 4:28:00 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Well my luck holds true unfortunately. Of all the days to have problems, I can not get a data download tonight and have given up. My charts will NOT be updated at either my site nor the MDA site and I am flying blind for tomorrow. Since I can not give any TA based observations, I will put forth a few fundamental ones though. I find it very interesting that the dumbing down of J6P is wider spread and has roots deeper than most realize. First we have supressed Oil prices so we brainwash the masses into thiking that the prior environmental concerns are no longer valid. No longer do we care about pollution or fuel economy and push a campaign that stresses if you aren't driving a truck or SUV then you aren't cool and keeping up with the Jones'. The huddled masses endorse it and car sales go up aiding the auro manufacturers and keep the oil companies in business until the turn around in oil finally comes. Then as the world economies weaken, we make credit easy so J6P can max out his credit cards and support the world buying all those foreign made goods. Now that the maximum allowable credit limits have been reached on all those cards that have been coming in the mail, we can now raise interest rates to put the squeeze on. J6P will now be paying more in interest than he will be able to pay down his debt balance just in time for companies to start laying off as they tighten their belts due to the increased costs of borrowing money thus slowing expansion. Lucky they made it harder to declare bankruptcy. Future projections??? I look for automanufacturing to slow down inthe next couple years just as oil prices start to top out. This will require that we re-engage in the save the world environmental sales pitch (notice they aer starting to talk about global warming again the last couple weeks). This will deprogram the Truck/SUV sales pitch and start a new push toward more environmentally correct and better milage driving vehicles like Geo Metros etc. I suspect in 10 years, every driveway will have a small car that gets at least 50 miles to the gallon in it spurring a sudden need for everyone to trade in their large vehicles for pennies on the dollar and pay top price for smaller gas saving cars. Of course by then, the market will have returned to historical valuations wiping out the paper profits of the buy and hold crowd, they will still be trying to pay off their credit cards that bought those internet stocks that only go up etc. so they won't have as much money for gas anyway. Just my view BWDIK, IF I can get a data download to happen before the open, I will post here when done but will only update the DOW, NASDAQ, SPX, TYX and OEX. Lastly for that straddle I mentioned a few days ago. I have been busy at work so I have not been able to trade nor would I want to since my job would keep me from reacting tomorrow but legging in to calls the last couple days would have you sitting pretty right here and getting the put side on at the close and tomorrow before the annnouncement would have given a nice straddle position holdiong the calls at a profit with some cushion and the puts at this higher level now. What ever the announcement and market's reaction, the wrong side postion could be unwound tomorrow without fighting the higher premium as the market starts to run in what ever direction. I feel that now is too late to try and pull this off though if you are not already positioned. Yesterday I looked at the open interest onteh DJX and OEX. OEX Max pain is too early to put much weight on but it was around 675 as of last night and I found it interesting that the DJX has a substantially large put open interest at 107 and 10K. There has been a lot of mention of GS buying 20K of 107 puts but there are almost as many at 10K. The largest open interest in calls was only about 2800. Was this just hedging as stocks were being bought at fire sale prices during this pullback???? Good Luck, Lee

To: HairBall who wrote (18853)	6/30/1999 7:45:00 PM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

To All: I have updated my charts again tonight. Wow, a very interesting day, but the results were expected. Seems it was already in the charts! I love it when a plan comes together….<g> I also expect to be able to update my BWDIK page on Sunday's as usual. I am just not able to be at my computers during the trading day except for brief moments. The featured charts again tonight are GE and the Value Line Geometric. I have been featuring both on and off for several weeks. If you are interested in viewing my charts, can you find on my chart page on the MDA Web Site at: homestead.com Regards, LG PS: I suspect we have not heard the last about interest rates.