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Strategies & Market Trends : Precious Metals mutual funds (gold, silver, PGMs) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dan P who wrote (386)	6/30/1999 9:04:00 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Respond to of 972

Hi Dan; Many years ago I listen to a metal dealer give a talk at a club I belonged to. His basic premise impressed me and to some extent tahts something I keep in mind. In buying Gold or Silver it's like taking out insurance, & if you ever make a lot of money on it it's very likely because the monetary system has broke down, run away inflation or every thing in general has gone to the dogs. In that respect the economy has suffered set backs that cost us in other ways. Insurance is never free and you have to almost hope you don't need to collect. So while he advised a small position in Gold and silver, he was candid about the big picture and how any big gains in Gold or Silver might not be as fruitful over all as if we just stayed about even. -------------------- I owned silver on the Big run back in the 80s, and was on a trip to Africa when the price went sky high ( but that was manipulation) by the Hunts, by the time I got back and found out about it it had dropped to $14 , I sold any way as I had bought at less than half of that. Latter when Silver went on down I started buying more, ( too much ) & it sat still for years until Buffet bought some, ( I sold ) but even then I had it so long that the gain was less than I would have made on a CD. --------------------- After that I tried picking a few miners, but that was no good either, finally I switched to copper and AR, CYM and PCU, when they hit extreme lows, that did OK . It's just been recently I started looking at the funds and saying heck why knock myself out I'll just use these guys when they look over sold. The TA is looking short term bullish, but I'm not looking at any huge run if Gold goes back to 290 or 300 even for a short while this year I'll do Ok. Jim

To: Dan P who wrote (386)	7/5/1999 9:44:00 PM
From: Larry S.	Respond to of 972

Dan, I have been negligent the past few weeks and failed to post the Barron's GMI/POG ratio. The information for the missing three weeks is as follows: On 6/17, the GMI was 320.10, down slightly from 325.96 the previous week. With the POG down to 258.95 (6/18), the ratio was essentially unchanged at 1.236. On 6/24, the GMI was 320.29, essentially unchanged from the previous week. With the POG up at 260.70 (6/25), the ratio was again essentially unchanged at 1.229. On 7/01, the GMI was 346.13, up significantly from the previous week. With the POG up to 262.60 (7/02), the ratio was up significantly at 1.318. For these dates, a year earlier the ratio was 1.23, 1.22 and 1.21, respectively. As has been the case for most of the past year, based on the data referenced in post 10, the ratio continues in the range of values that strongly suggests the XAU will be substantially higher within a year. However, the fact that the ratio has been in this range for more than a year suggests that the data referenced in post 10 isn't adequate statistically and/or that we are experiencing a abnormality. Cheers, Larry

To: Dan P who wrote (386)	7/6/1999 11:36:00 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Respond to of 972

Hi Dan; It looks as if that UK sale did some serious damage, or more than I thought it would. I'm dumping mine and I won't be back in gold until the Governments get out of the Gold bussiness, which I know likely won't happen in my lifetime. Jim

To: Dan P who wrote (386)	7/14/1999 6:08:00 PM
From: Larry S.	Respond to of 972

Dan, et al: On 7/08, the Barron's GMI was 327.92, down from the previous week's 346.13. With the POG down to 257.30 (7/09), the ratio was down significantly at 1.275. A year earlier the ratio was 1.23. As has been the case for most of the past year, based on the data referenced in post 10, the ratio continues in the range of values that strongly suggests the XAU will be substantially higher within a year. However, as I've said befor, the fact that the ratio has been in this range for more than a year suggests that the data referenced in post 10 isn't adequate statistically and/or that we are experiencing an abnormality. Cheers, Larry

To: Dan P who wrote (386)	7/25/1999 1:22:00 PM
From: Larry S.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 972

Dan, et al: I missed a week again. It is hard to maintain one's interest in posting the Barron's GMI/POG indicator with the market so bad and the indicator seemingly meaningless but we must persevere. On 7/15, the Barron's GMI was 317.37, down from the previous week's 327.92. With the POG down to 255.65 (7/16), the ratio was up slightly at 1.24. On 7/22, the Barron's GMI was 323.58, up from the previous week's 317.37. With the POG down to 255.30 (7/23), the ratio was up at 1.27. A year earlier the ratio was 1.21. As has been the case for most of the past year, based on the data referenced in post 10, the ratio continues in the range of values that strongly suggests the XAU will be substantially higher within a year. However, the fact that the ratio has been in this range for more than a year suggests that the data referenced in post 10 isn't adequate statistically and/or that we are experiencing an abnormality. Cheers, Larry