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Technology Stocks : AUTOHOME, Inc -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Frank A. Coluccio who wrote (11923)	6/30/1999 10:06:00 AM
From: Lane Hall-Witt	Respond to of 29970

LOL -- yes. I hold a small long position in ATHM, and I'd love to believe he's right. But it's hard to imagine ATHM being in a position to capture 25 percent of the ISP market within the next four years. A figure that argues against this projection comes from ATHM's direct email campaign to capture Excite registrants who live within the @Home footprint. They've sent email to about 500,000 users and have a very good 10 percent success rate. (This is an astonishingly high success rate, as anyone with experience in direct marketing could confirm.) I really don't know how Bell makes the leap from 10 percent capture of qualified Excite leads to 25 percent capture of the entire U.S. ISP market. And, unfortunately, none of the articles I have seen on yesterday's presentation have given enough context to figure out how Bell calculated that number. Bottom line for me is to take Bell's projection with skepticism, but to read his enthusiasm as a sign that ATHM probably has something pretty radical in its strategic arsenal. My guess is a pricing war aimed directly at AOL's user base. High-speed access, available 24/7/365, at a lower overall price.