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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (12532)	6/30/1999 11:16:00 AM
From: FMK	Respond to of 27311

Zeev, Here is my original post. It was intended as a quick note to convey something I heard. A quick note- I was given an informed interpretation of the $3 million private financing. The amount was thought sufficient to get some serious production underway to see some "material events" that should get stock price up enough for a larger financing. Raising $75 million to build another plant to double NI's production capability will be much more feasible at $15-$25 per share than at today's prices. I realize this is a relatively long term view after so many have waited so long already and the diatribe of the shorts and naysayers seems to focus on the share price at the moment. IMO the higher energy storage of the generation II version should boost the NI's annual capacity to as much as 750 mln watt hours. Add another plant like it and the total might be 1.5 billion watt hours. Will laptop and other OEM's pay a premium, say $3 per watt hour? I just thought I would mention that before the naysayers try to worry us about dilution. Another 3 or 5 million shares at $15-$25 if that what it takes, should be well placed to raise enough to get another plant underway. I will resist multiplying a future anticipated total watt hour capacity by dollars per watt hour and dividing by outstanding shares. Remember when Lev stated NI capacity as 30 million batteries per year? That meant 1 battery per share and he was heard to say since that 30 mln was on the low side. 600 million watt hours/ 30 million batteries makes an average of 20 watt hours per battery. What should a share be worth if it represents one battery per year(next year) that holds over 20 watt hours? I think Valence share price is due for a correction! I heard a rumor that Alan Greenspan's laptop battery went dead and he's looking for answers! Best Regards to longs from FMK I didn't get into any numbers until Larry made some "box of rocks" statements. If one of my calculations was off by a factor of 10, its because it was very late. Over six months ago many calculations were made regarding NI's expected plant capacity that indicated somewhere around 550 million watt hours per year based on six production lines and generation 1 product. Since then, improvements in yield and the transition to generation II product now being built would appear to increase the 550 to 750. The last I heard, Lev still expects premium pricing upwards of $3 per watt hour because there is nothing better out there in commercial quantities or at all. If you multiply 750 million watt hours x $3, I get $2.25 billion. Its a very large number and I am comfortable with results much smaller, and that's why I used smaller numbers. I don't think its unreasonable to expect $7.50 per share profit on 40 million shares from $1 to $2 billion revenue with a top of the line product. For you and Larry to pick apart my smaller numbers indicates your intent is less than constructive. I must agree it is too much to expect silence from the over 2 million short interest. After all, the sky is the limit for their exposure when the large contracts come in. One would expect them to do their best to argue and manipulate the price down to cover before that happens.