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Non-Tech : Papa John's International -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: otter who wrote (23)6/30/1999 2:02:00 PM
From: Toby Zidle  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 32
 
PZZA can't manage to stay above $45, can it?

You're right, I do the charting routines. Personally, my favorite indicator is ADXR with short-term parameters (14,3,3). I got this out of a seminar I went to in Vegas. ADXR shows improving trendiness as the value rises. The trend can be up or down, so you can't automatically buy all improving ADXRs. The key to finding the beginnings of trends is to look for upwards crossings of the '15' marker.

I now plot ADXR with all my charts and it does impress me as a very good short-term (5-15 days and longer) buy indicator. What does this do for PZZA? Nothing. The last 15-up crossing was early in May, but the trend was down. Since then ADXR hasn't fallen under 15. An interpretation is that the 'trend' isn't basing long enough between legs to give a 'buy' threshold. Another is that the trends don't develop enough 'depth' to be considered quality decision factors.

If I had bought at the last ADXR reversal (though it never based under 15), it would have been on Monday's opening at $42 3/4. So I'd have made some profit so far, but it's not too exciting here. Also, I really don't want to buy on the basis of one indicator without confirmation. For PZZA, I still want to see resistance broken through above $45. So, for me, PZZA is a 'watch', not yet a 'buy'.