To: D.L.STAHLEY who wrote (168 ) 8/4/1999 8:01:00 AM From: Certech Respond to of 171
DL, I listened to the conference call and am a little perplexed. First, GPTX comes out last month and states they will not meet their internal goals this year because of weakening demand in Australia. This was explained as a one-time deal, which should be corrected by year?s end as demand gets back to traditional/forecasted levels. A question was asked on how much this situation caused weakness in their current quarter results. The answer I heard was that there was a minimal effect on GPTX business for the current quarter and will have a large effect on next quarter?s results. If this is the case what caused GPTX to miss their internal growth goals for the current quarter? I also question this to be a one-time effect. I have seen this too often before with other companies. These types of things tend to drag on much longer than they want you to believe. This could be very serious since a lot of their business depends on this contract. If it does only last a quarter then great, but if drags on then watch out below. This adds to the uncertainty issue that I describe below. Also, there was a lot of talk on new market potential. With any new potential markets, comes uncertainty. One thing the investor public does not like is uncertainty. While this is great that they are looking to new markets, I get the feeling that GPTX is using this carrot to keep investor at bay as they try and sort out their troubles. I think there is more than meets the eye. Remember that none of the new markets will provide revenue for next quarter. Therefore, I would expect to see some dismal results reported for the next quarter. I was also surprised on how little was discussed about their new generation III bill validator. It was my understanding that this was their ticket to increasing their bottom line because of lower costs and better features and value it provides to their customers. I also believe it was slated for their Australian based customer(s). I would like to know what effect the slow down in demand from their Australian subsidiary has on the Generation III program and its contribution to profits. I think I?ll give IR a call to discuss. Any thoughts from your end would be appreciated. Just so you know, I am long on this stock but I am considering selling my position to cut my losses. Again, I would appreciate your comments. Best regards, Certech