Lot of people are interested in Drug sector.. I think this is a great interview.. this sector will take off irrespective of market direction..
New Drugs PFE, SGP, AHP among Pharmaceutical BUYs
July 7, 1999
Gruntal & Co.'s David Saks shares his thoughts on pharmaceuticals. Read the transcript from the June 29 live event held on AOL's MarketTalk, hosted by Sage, via keyword: AOL Live.
Sage is proud to introduce Mr. David Saks, Managing Director of Gruntal & Co., and Gruntal's senior pharmaceuticals analyst. Thanks for joining us today, David. Do you have anything to say before the questions start?
DAVID SAKS: Yes. The pharmaceutical industry is poised to deliver great new pharmaceutical products and record earnings. It should offer investors above-average appreciation over the next three to five years — better than the overall stock market, in my judgment.
Q: How big of a threat to major pharmaceutical companies is President Clinton's Medicare drug proposal?
SAKS: President Clinton's proposals are only proposals, and for the past 20 years the industry has experienced growth every year with increased regulation. I see more growth, more demand, and very little chance, in my judgment, of government interference. Those concerns have been there a long time and never slowed growth. In fact, government assistance has produced more new drugs, more growth, and greater shareholder wealth. There is nothing to fear, in my judgment.
Q: Given the considerable drop in the price of Pfizer Inc. (PFE), do you consider it a BUY?
SAKS: We consider Pfizer a standout top-choice BUY as the company is poised to have one of the best lineups of new products launched and of new products with blockbuster potential in the pipeline. The company also has a global opportunity to remain at the top of industry growth. The upcoming three-for-one split will bring the share price to more affordable levels and represents an especially great opportunity now that the stock has backed away from its all time high. We expect Pfizer to report all-time-record earnings this year and into the next several years.
Q: Do you have any opinion on Sepracor Inc. (SEPR), a drug company that works to improve existing drugs?
Q: I was one of the first analysts on Wall Street to recognize Sepracor's potential. It is one of my favorite specialty drug companies. There are no earnings from new drugs today, but the company is poised for huge growth in earnings in 2001. The only company likely to have a better record in the same category is Andrx Corp. (ADRX), also a terrific specialty drug and drug technology company.
Q: I'm frustrated with my Warner-Lambert Co. (WLA) shares and not making any money. Should I hold or sell?
SAKS: I'm sorry for your frustration, but I think you should stay where you are. If anything, I would recommend buying more shares today, not selling the ones you already have, because Warner-Lambert is the fastest growing blue-chip drug company in the market.
Q: What about biotech in general?
SAKS: The average investor should avoid it. The segment is high risk and also high potential, and most people cannot tolerate the long time horizon and the very high risk that most biotech stocks carry. If you like biotech, we recommend Schering-Plough Corp. (SGP) and American Home Products (AHP). They have high biotech components yet blue-chip financial strength. Or buy Amgen (AMGN) and Biogen Inc. (BGEN), the leading companies in the field.
Q: What are your short- and long-term views on Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY)?
SAKS: Eli Lilly's outlook short and long term is outstanding. We see lots of new products, such as the drug for diabetes, Actos, and we see lots of opportunity for existing big drugs, such as Zyprexa for mental illness.
Q: What are your thoughts on IVAX Corp. (IVX)?
SAKS: IVAX is one of Gruntal's new featured BUY recommendations. So far as I know, I'm the only senior drug analyst on Wall Street who recommends the company. We see a major earnings turnaround at IVAX and a major new-product story in generics, in cancer and in asthma.
Q: What do you think of Merck & Co. Inc. (MRK)?
SAKS: Merck has the lowest price-to-earnings multiple of all the blue chip drug stocks, thus making Merck a favorite value drug stock. The company has lots of blockbuster new drugs, such as Vioxx for arthritis; however, it also has lots of patent-loss risk in the coming years.
Q: Do you like Abbott Laboratories (ABT) short or long term?
SAKS: I don't suggest Abbott for the high-growth investor in pharmaceuticals. The company has made a good new move by buying one of our favorite specialty companies, (ALZA). If investors want high growth, I suggest switching from Abbott and buying Pfizer, Warner-Lambert, or Schering-Plough. If you're ultraconservative, Abbott's fine.
Q: Are there any large-cap pharmaceuticals that you would avoid?
SAKS: I would not avoid large-cap pharmaceuticals because the future is so bright, but at their current levels, I do not recommend Glaxo Wellcome (GLX) or SmithKline Beecham (SBH).
Q: What is your opinion on Amgen?
SAKS: Amgen, the leading and highly regarded biotech company, faces fabulous earnings near term and a bigger-than-ever pipeline. I would be a buyer, and I think the stock is cheap.
Q: Can Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) maintain earnings growth of 15% a year?
SAKS: Johnson & Johnson has a track record of growth going back 110 years. I have great confidence that it will continue to have another five or ten years of upward earnings. Fifteen percent might be a stretch; growth will probably be closer to 13 - 14%. Johnson & Johnson would be my favorite stock for the growth investor who wants a security blanket of growth in healthcare and drugs.
Q: Is Warner-Lambert stock a BUY, even with the well-reported problems surrounding diabetes drug Rezulin?
SAKS: Yes, Warner-Lambert is an outstanding BUY idea. It is the fastest growing of the big drug companies and its recent acquisition of biotech firm Agouron makes Warner-Lambert even more attractive. In my opinion, the Rezulin problem has already been discounted in the share price.
Q: What view do you have on SmithKline Beecham?
SAKS: It is one of the great companies in the field. The recent sale of its non-drug operations brought in billions of dollars that can be redeployed in new areas. However, because it is British, non-U.S. based, it is subject to currency volatility that is difficult to predict.
SAGE: Thanks for joining us today, David. Do you have a last word for investors?
SAKS: Investors who look out into 2000 and beyond should invest heavily in a portfolio of big drug companies and smaller specialty drug companies, including some of those we've mentioned. The earnings of the entire industry of stocks is likely to continue to grow at the recent unparalleled rates because of the great need, yet to be fully appreciated, of an aging population, the excitement over new blockbuster drugs, and the global merging of the industry. |