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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mason Barge who wrote (7933)	6/30/1999 4:55:00 PM
From: Math Junkie	Respond to of 10921

Too soon to go short IMO. Best to wait until bookings start down.

To: Mason Barge who wrote (7933)	6/30/1999 5:02:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 10921

Mason, I remember your name. Selling today strikes me as smart, if you're conservative. It crossed my mind today, but I held. My positions in semi equips are small. Mason, you may not have seen the charts I made. They show the relationship between SEMI orders and stock price. I will soon extend the data back to 1/95. This is the only sector where I have such a clear relationship between price and orders. geocities.com geocities.com Note: SEMI orders are plotted on the date the report becomes public. semi.org Gottfried

To: Mason Barge who wrote (7933)	6/30/1999 9:09:00 PM
From: Alan Gallaspy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Welcome back Mason. I guess there is the entire spectrum from buy and hold to hyperactive daytrading represented on this thread. Would you do us the favor of posting at the end of the month for the next several months whether your decision was astute or if you left a bundle on the table? I would be willing to bet that there are plenty of buy and hold types like myself who could do better with semi-equips if they would unload high and reload low. The whole premise of this thread is to load up cheap, but the sell point seems to be kind of tricky. This topic has been addressed a few times on the FSII thread too, which is mostly populated with long term types that have taken it in the shorts with the volatility in this sector. Donald Wennerstrom has lots of great data there going back a few years, and the best we can come up with is that you have to trade the right stocks at the right time. Not very helpful, but hopefully we can improve on that somehow.