Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marc ultra who wrote (6433)	6/30/1999 5:10:00 PM
From: Kirk ©	Respond to of 15132

ouch! I hope her name isn't Elaine! 8)

To: marc ultra who wrote (6433)	6/30/1999 9:25:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

Marc: Re: "I keep in mind what Bob has said about looking at what Greenspan and the Fed does and not so much what he says. While the money supply has been downplayed a lot by the Fed and others in recent years it is obvious that Bob puts a lot of importance in it. We look at a Fed that has been clamping down on money supply growth (if not even actual money supply) and has just raised interest rates." Makes sense to me. I am disappointed with the Fed. and its bias change but the data will tell the story as it always does. But if the Fed. was worried about the "wealth effect," who knows why they did what they did because they literally through gasoline on the fire for now.If we go parabolic as a result of strong earnings and neutral economic data, you have the potential for a blow off here. One cannot ignore this possibility. Re: " As to my spouse's deferred accounts I think I'll wait for an official sell signal before going to cash." Went to 40% cash/60% stocks in that account because I can reallocate only once a month effective the first of the following month (tomorrow). Vanguard Money Market is yielding over 5.0% in that 401(k). If by chance I wanted to take evasive action, I could do absolutely nothing until August 1st, thus my conservative posture in that account. Re: "If we are at new highs in all the indexes I think I'll put a giant hedge on to be followed by more aggressive action if an official sell signal comes." More updraft possible. If we get neutral economic data Friday, the big boys may well pump this market up more short term to try to anticipate the earnings reports. Re: " If I try to outsmart Bob and make a premature move I don't want to get hit by a frying pan, at least that was the old days, these days you have to worry about getting shot in your sleep or worse being Bobbitized." Give my best to your lovely wife but tell her to stay the heck away from me <g>. PS Put/Call closed at .42 today so you know where we are going on this 10 DMA shortly.

To: marc ultra who wrote (6433)	6/30/1999 9:36:00 PM
From: MrGreenJeans	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

Federal Reserve While the money supply has been downplayed a lot by the Fed and others in recent years it is obvious that Bob puts a lot of importance in it. The Federal Reserve has only downplayed the importance of the money supply in targeting interest rate levels relative to the Paul Volcker days. The Fed never downplays the importance of money supply or velocity. Bob places a lot of importance on the money supply because it is the excess money that finds its way into equity markets creating large moves. We look at a Fed that has been clamping down on money supply growth (if not even actual money supply) and has just raised interest rates In order for the Fed to raise rates the money supply must decrease. My guess at this point is that Bob does not issue a sell shortly. A slight increase in rates, a change for the better in bias perhaps indicating no interest rates move in the next few months although Greenspan can change rates b/w meetings if he wishes all means the bull continues for at least the next few weeks absent bad economic news. I suspect Bob will hold on to the bull argument in the weeks ahead.