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Gold/Mining/Energy : Blue Chip Gold Stocks HM, NEM, ASA, ABX, PDG -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wade who wrote (445)	7/6/1999 2:43:00 PM
From: Exsrch	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 48092

To all who are interested: I've pulled together some analyses on NEM and ABX over the last week on my spare time and wanted to share my hypothesis. This should be a good discussion and would appreciate good fact based replys. It should be noted that this is going to be in two parts. 1. The hypothesis 2. The collaborating evidence The hypothesis: NEM is not anymore leveraged to gold price than ABX (did I get everyones attention?). I would even argue that "realizable leverage" is with ABX and not with NEM. How can this be? You'll get the answer in part two. In conjunction with this hypothesis I would also argue the following for Q2 results: - ABX cash cost will decline while NEM cash cost will be the same or rise slightly in Q2 - ABX production volumes will increase while NEM decreases driven by rationalization of production to minimize costs in Q2 - NEM might breakeven or make a small accounting profit and pay a dividend (would be a mistake) because of sales of two mining interest. - NEM's CEO bet that gold was at bottom in Q1; however, with market reaction to BOE sale has put CEO in precarious situation. He might, given property disposition and current cash flow, meet obligations this year, but if POG does not recover within 9 months, NEM is going to be in trouble. Cheers, Exsrch