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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jeffbas who wrote (7635)	6/30/1999 7:38:00 PM
From: Michael Burry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78764

I suspect CHB's relative multiple is moving to be more in line with its relative debt level. I've seen this before recently with the oils, just as they were putting in a bottom - the ratios among the stocks line up according to safety in the event of a doomsday scenario. IMO, most of the housing stocks, manu housing, RV, construction products, and that ilk have been doing this this last 3 months. To be honest, I hesitated a bit in buying more Champion. I already own National RV and several other stocks that are likely to be affected by the same macrotrends as CHB. But basically, my portfolio has grown significantly this year, and the average position size has grown proportionately. My older Champion position was the smallest in my portfolio, which didn't fully represent its true position in terms of relative appreciation potential, so I upgraded it. I feel I have a good level in the 18's where the downside is severely limited. True, the stock movement has been bearish, but it has only fallen back to old support. It has bounced rather sharply off this level several times. If CHB moves to new lows, I will be exiting the stock. Not a value investor-like thing to do, but to close below 17 would be a very difficult thing for this stock to do. If it happens, I'm probably not aware of something, I'll have a small loss and that'll be that. Gone are the days when I impale myself averaging down in an underperforming, technically damaged position (I hope). Mike

To: jeffbas who wrote (7635)	7/2/1999 4:06:00 PM
From: Michael Burry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78764

Re: manu homes, Southern Energy just warned. They sit in the same zip code as Cavalier, which is crashing in sympathy and with a downgrade. Both have had insider buying this year. Jeffrey, you were waiting for the whites of their eyes. You may see it yet. In general, if it has to do with housing, it has a single digit PE. Two of the worst-run, American Homestar and Oakwood are actually up today. That might be significant in terms of the sector finding a bottom. Champion is seriously threatening to break to new lows despite management stating that earnings are on track and a new buy recommendation from DLJ. Clayton hasn't commented.