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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bill meehan who wrote (63628)	6/30/1999 10:15:00 PM
From: per strandberg	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

bill (or anybody) what's happening in China? dropping like a rock. down 5%

To: bill meehan who wrote (63628)	6/30/1999 10:43:00 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

the vigilantes shall be back. imo. some thoughts on July 4th seasonality that came to me today. Got curious as to whether July 4 had any particular up/down tendency. The short answer is probably not, though on a 70 year sample, the average gain on a 3-day hold bought on the close before the holiday was 0.27% with a median of 0.42%. I'd say the median has a pretty high statistical confidence of not being random. However, looking at smaller, more recent samples, there's just a small edge in favor of July 4 having an upward tendency. Here's the percent changes by year, for the 3 day hold across July 4: 29 1.35 41 2.90 53 0.63 65 0.31 77 -0.35 89 1.43 30 -0.22 42 3.25 54 0.62 66 1.65 78 -0.05 90 0.09 31 -7.41 43 -0.07 55 1.41 67 1.09 79 2.08 91 0.43 32 -5.86 44 0.07 56 2.18 68 2.14 80 0.94 92 -1.11 33 1.54 45 0.54 57 0.60 69 -2.76 81 -0.59 93 0.87 34 2.53 46 0.14 58 -0.54 70 -1.02 82 1.00 94 1.15 35 3.20 47 0.00 59 1.37 71 1.21 83 -1.22 95 2.56 36 -1.20 48 0.26 60 0.56 72 1.01 84 -0.02 96 -2.12 37 3.19 49 1.66 61 0.42 73 0.35 85 -0.34 97 -0.68 38 -0.72 50 0.10 62 0.22 74 -2.60 86 -3.93 98 1.66 39 0.99 51 1.95 63 0.10 75 0.01 87 1.12 40 0.50 52 -0.62 64 0.48 76 -0.78 88 -0.42

To: bill meehan who wrote (63628)	6/30/1999 11:55:00 PM
From: Lucretius	Respond to of 132070

re: UTY, gold shares ticking up, JOC, etc.... Bill... just my speculation.. but if next week's Tankan survey is good.. BOJ may raise rates slightly as they have been hinting over the last couple days that they will have to do at some pt.... and our bond mkt as well as others around the world tank as the flow of funds is forced to revese back into Japan after flowing out for the last 5 yrs and supplying much of the capital used to speculate around the globe.