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Non-Tech : Bill Wexler's Dog Pound -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Bill Wexler who wrote (1703)7/1/1999 1:47:00 AM
From: S. maltophilia  Respond to of 10293
 
I don't think I share that perception; at least I don't see improvement to the extent discounted by AVP's price.
Internet? Maybe....
biz.yahoo.com
My wife goes online and orders goop. It never occurs to her to look for Avon. The Avon ladies have some competition, and entry is easy.
I agree a short may be dangerous. There are some attractive puts out there with plenty of time left on them.



To: Bill Wexler who wrote (1703)7/1/1999 12:54:00 PM
From: Marconi  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10293
 
Hello Mr. Wexler: WCAP

Looks like this essentially closed end fund is coming alive after the 6-28 annual report. It seems the public is pricing it as an operating company with a P/E rather than a price/assets, which with the internet mania is what the reported earnings are. Too bad they do not issue a 4th quarter report, too, reflecting the decline in holdings during the 4th quarter instead of netting the year. Worth mid single digits as long as internets hold up. If I recall, COOL is their largest holding.

WCAP has minor shares in a number of internet IPO's in the last year from their core business of administering small business loans using government programs. They could sell everything and it wouldn't put a blip on the internet companies they hold.

I am short WCAP, expecting it to go to single digits in the next few quarters as the one time gain recognized on the IPO holdings no longer gets reported as profits. Has been as high as 60 briefly on a run. Traded 30's not too long back. Declined a little in between and has rebounded from low 20's to mid to high 20's in the last two days since the annual report release. I am considering boxing at this level and counting on the others in the public to run the price higher based on failing to do the quarter by quarter comparison for the 3 and buried-in-the-annual report, 4th quarter. Time will bring the numbers around in the next quarters.

Not much in the line of mania IPO's available to them and I see no reason for them with little money to have any inside track to obtain IPO's--there are bigger dollars elsewhere with more influence. WCAP through their loan programs ended up with stock in a number of internet companies years ago. With the amazing pricing of the internet IPO's in the last year WCAP assets no longer are not in their marginal and relatively tiny loan business, but in the one time gains in the internet IPO's. WCAP management has not shown themselves astute at selling out the internet holdings at higher prices and seem to be holding through significant declines.. The IPO money is a situation they have fallen into and restructured the company from a loan business to primarily a closed end fund in the last year or so. Save for the $5-8 of internet holdings, WCAP would be a penny stock. 3 guys run it.
Are you interested in WCAP as a short at this point?
Regards,
m