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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Berliner who wrote (1906)	7/1/1999 1:58:00 PM
From: X Y Zebra	Respond to of 3536

So now the market has another thing to worry about. This Fed is either stupid or crazy. Completely the opposite.... I think that by keeping the market nervous, it tames it a bit... I really think that the FED is somehow limited in their push to increase rates, [provided that inflation does not re-appear], due to the effect it would have on the Latin American Markets/Economies... So after all, there may be a way to have your cake and eat it too... I have a feeling that they are under coersion to be very amiable towards the financial markets because an election year is on the horizon, but further analysis of this latest maneuver has left me quite perplexed as to their gameplan. Don't say anything.... but it is the black helicopter conspiracy theory...[yet again]. In this instance, the main protagonists are: 1. The Internut [baby-boomers] bulls. who have invested heavily in absurd companies, at even more absurd prices. 2. The Social Security Administration. Who in the face of possessing only IOU's from the government, instead of the needed cash to fund the retirement of the baby-boomer "investors", they see that the Internut strategy, after all, will make the "SS" job easier, than facing a bunch of penniless borrachos [this give us piggy-back riders, another 10 to 15 years, depending of how much you like to be close to the line] 3. The "Gov." who in seeing the market continuing its growing path, they think people won't mind that they continue with more absurd policies.... after all.... AMZN.com will be at $1,950/share... after splits, so who cares if the "Gov." continues with silly funding ideas 4. The FED.... they are just the tool to accomplish all this [However AG is secretly ploting a new World Wide government, using the CB network to execute his master plan --of which selling gold by the CB's is part of said master plot] Under such scenario, the GOV's of the world will be left penniless, and at the total mercy of the network of Central Bankers.... headed by Alan Greenspan himself. The rule of the Free Market will be the norm. Headquarters will be in Atlantis.

To: Paul Berliner who wrote (1906)	7/1/1999 2:12:00 PM
From: Henry Volquardsen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3536

I don't think the Fed is either stupid or crazy. The word that most easily springs to mind is devious. The switch to neutral has left the market in a bit of a quandry. We are getting an initial euphoria but there are already people who are pointing out that this by no means precludes the Fed from tightening at the next meeting. What this actually does is put a lot of uncertainty back into the market. You will now see a lot more volatility in the market as it has to focus more on each economic number to figure out what is next. There was 90% plus certainty on this last move. The Fed doesn't want that. In addition I believe the Fed is already starting to manage expectations in the professional market. I have strong suspicions on where the rumour I referenced this morning is coming from.

To: Paul Berliner who wrote (1906)	7/2/1999 2:36:00 PM
From: Jon Stept	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3536

Paul, re"... this bias upgrade by the Fed from tightening to neutral..." Hi Paul, I wandered in here and saw you thoughtful post. It reminded me of one of my musings regarding the rate increase, bias and its relation to the recent trillion dollar windfall story. High stock market means more capital gains, means more windfall, means Clinton and his admin look good. So, a neutral bias may be required to play out this trillion dollar windfall spin, otherwise a negative bias may undermine the spin. A plausible dynamic... not sure of its impact though... what do you think? Just my remedial opinion. Jon :)