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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Yogizuna who wrote (41277)7/1/1999 12:52:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 94695
 
Yogi, o.k. btw, i am still grappling with the fact that so many technical indicators are now pointing to much higher prices, while the put/call ratios are at record lows. the individual equities ratio came in at 0,305 yesterday, which is the lowest *ever*. since individual equity calls are the speculative vehicle of choice for J6P, i'm asking myself if all the positive technical action will turn out to be a bull trap. otoh, it is normally very bullish when the market ignores bad news, starting with the INTC downgrades and now with the CPM figures yesterday and NAPM today and the resulting renewed weakness in the bond market.the new contract highs in crude oil and oil-based products seem barely worth a mention (which is telling me that they will probably go a lot higher - this is also suggested by the wave structure - wave three up seems to have started).

perhaps a speculative blow-off is characterized by p/c ratios being invalid for a while, although i find it very suspicious that in addition to the low ratios one analyst after the other is coming out to assure us of a massive rally being right around the corner. even the perma-bears seem to be throwing in the towel and starting to speculate on the blow-off(this statement is based on anecdotal message board evidence). in other words, the breakout to new highs has produced an unusually wide-spread bullish consensus. it's easy now to make a count of the skeptics, as there are almost none left.

perhaps bill's mid-july surprise will deal the complacency a blow - the VIX is at 20,29 as i am writing this, demand for puts is all but disappearing...

regards,

hb