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Technology Stocks : CHRZ - What is the near term outlook? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tuck who wrote (325)	7/1/1999 6:18:00 PM
From: Tony S.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 443

tuck, et. al.: CHRZ prospects vs. KEA? Over the last few months I've been establishing small positions in enterprise/systems software companies, believing that we're within 12 months (maybe much less) of a post-Y2K turnaround for the sector. I started with the big boys, bmcs and orcl, both of which have moved strongly of late. I expect smaller companies, like chrz and kea, to join the party eventually. I'm impressed by the fundamentals of both chrz and kea, and may initiate positions in both, but I plan to start with one or the other and would appreciate any guidance/insights/thoughts from people on this thread. My thinking at the moment is this: kea is the more richly valued of the two (not that anyone who holds either stock would think of them as 'richly valued'). I attribute kea's higher valuation mostly to its stronger year-over-year eps growth from 1997 to 1998, its better first quarter 1999 results, and, to a lesser degree, its larger market cap which gives it greater institutional visibility. Those strong 1999 Q1 numbers may indicate the company is making a smoother transition than chrz in replacing Y2K revenues. On the other hand, I appreciate chrz's generally conservative management guidance, which gives me a higher level of confidence in their ability to hit growth targets. In view of kea's recent warning, I believe chrz may be better positioned to exceed market earnings expectations in the near term. For me, it comes down to this: what is the reason for kea's stronger relative earnings performance over the last year, and what is the evidence to indicate that it will or will not continue, accelerate, or drop. I plan to post this query on the kea board as well. Thanks in advance for your input. Tony