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To: JohnG who wrote (33834)	7/1/1999 1:57:00 PM
From: Jon Koplik	Respond to of 152472

To all - more blather regarding inflation / lack of inflation from the WSJ's "Briefing.com" analysis of this morning's Natl. Assoc. of Purchasing Managers (or whatever it is called ...) report. ************************************** On the price front, the news was not as good as it was in 1998, but there is still little evidence of an inflation problem. Both the price and delivery indexes rose in June, but the respective levels of 53.5% and 53.1% are not the stuff of which inflationary spikes are made. For perspective, not that the price index rose to more than 85% and the delivery index was nearly 65% back in the last serious inflation scare in 1994. We are nowhere near those levels. The employment index actually fell just a bit to 51.9% from 53.5%, but this is not a particularly good indicator of manufacturing payrolls growth on a monthly basis, so we wouldn't read too much into this decline as it pertains to the June employment report. For the record, it's worth recalling that big decline in the Philly Fed index to 5.3 from 21.1 for June. That's a good reminder of just how misleading the regional reports can be. The Chicago PMI gave the correct indication this month, but neither Philly nor Chicago is a reliable indicator of the national NAPM. Jon.