To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (65949 ) 7/1/1999 8:21:00 PM From: GST Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 164684
Sarmad -- we may not be ut of the woods yet on bond yields. Lots and lots of corporate issuance next week, and tomorrows data which is expected to be weak might not be as soft as expected. They yen will play a role also: FOCUS-BOJ spending spree may have only bought time 06:27 a.m. Jul 01, 1999 Eastern By Chikafumi Hodo TOKYO, July 1 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan spent a bundle to hold back the tide of yen strength in June, but traders believe it may have merely bought Japanese authorities a little time in their efforts to restrain the currency. The BOJ set a single-month record volume in dollar- and euro-buying intervention in June to keep the bubbling yen in check, but the effect is already fading, dealers said on Thursday. The intervention appears to have effectively stemmed the market's yen-buying appetite in the short term, but many dealers doubt it will last much longer. ''The BOJ's substantial intervention only succeeded in a way to buy a little time, and has not necessarily changed the basic yen-buying trend,'' said Sayuri Kawamura, senior economist at Japan Research Institute. On Thursday, dealers said the dollar failed to attract new buying despite a ''relief'' rally in U.S. asset markets in the wake of the Federal Reserve's mild rate tightening. In contrast, foreign funds continued to pour into Japanese stocks, resulting in a natural upward bias for the yen. In line with the intervention, Japanese monetary officials have tried to convince the market that they are willing to live with a weak yen. Japanese Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs Eisuke Sakakibara has reiterated that a weaker yen is acceptable if needed for Japan's economic recovery. Separately, Makoto Utsumi, former Japanese vice minister for international affairs, told Reuters last week that Japanese authorities appear to have become more flexible in allowing the dollar to rise above 125 yen. But despite this official prodding, the market has been notably reluctant to buy dollars, with its gains limited at slightly above 122.50 yen after the last round of intervention, dealers said. The BOJ stepped into the market several times in June with aggressive yen-selling orders against the dollar and the euro. The BOJ's yen-selling interventions were its first since January. The BOJ was detected buying dollars for yen on June 10, 14 and 21 and purchasing euros against the yen on June 18 and 21. The Finance Ministry announced that Japan's external reserves ballooned by a record $22.718 billion to $246.337 billion in June from May after the series of yen-selling interventions. The interventions helped boost the dollar from slightly below 118 yen to a high of around 122.50. The euro rose from below 123 yen to above 127 yen during the month. By late Thursday, the dollar was quoted at 120.69/74 yen and the euro was at 124.92/96 yen. ''I feel the BOJ succeeded in planting its presence in the market, but the market will forget that very quickly once stronger yen-buying factors emerge. We've seen that many times in the past,'' the commercial bank dealer said. Dealers are already speculating that the BOJ will step into the currency market if the yen-buying mood heats up after Monday's release of the BOJ's quarterly ''tankan'' survey. The market is betting the tankan will show an improvement in Japanese corporate sentiment, which could induce heavy yen-buying, they said. ''The energy is clearly building up. Volume in dollar/yen has been low, not only because the market is afraid of the BOJ, but because players are waiting for the chance to buy the yen,'' the bank dealer said. Traders expect the BOJ to be ready to battle any yen revival, but Kawamura said the Japanese authorities should be wary of the possible negative consequence of massive currency intervention. ''I'm not sure what the BOJ thinks about the danger of inviting potential supply-and-demand imbalances in the government bond market because the effect of massive dollar purchases would be an increase in financing bill (FB) issuance,'' Kawamura said. She said this could cause oversupply in the bond market, putting upward pressure on interest rates. Japan began offering FBs through price-competitive auctions in April. The government issues FBs to cover temporary fund shortages, mainly caused by currency market intervention. ((Tokyo Treasury Desk +81-3 3432-8785 tokyo.newsroom+reuters.com)) Copyright 1999 Reuters Limited.