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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (19090)	7/1/1999 5:12:00 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 99985

To preempt any surprise bought some puts today not my casual way of trading as I usually write option, but will write a lower strike with any small pullback and wait. Haim

To: bobby beara who wrote (19090)	7/1/1999 9:39:00 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

FORTUCAST marketweb.com STOCKS and SEPT. S & P e-minis WEEKLY CHART TREND: Higher to DOW 12658. DAILY CHART TREND: Higher. TODAY'S EXPECTED DIRECTION: Topping and lower. NEXT HOURLY CHART NEXT DAILY CHART NEXT WEEKLY CHART TURN: 7/2 L TURN: 7/2 L TURN: 7/99 H SWING TRADER'S STRATEGY: Buy 1367 and 1370 with a 1356.50 stop. (07/01) DAY TRADER'S SUMMARY: We badly misjudged this market as the rate hike was ignored and the market went much beyond our higher target of 1369. This now opens the door for a move to at least the 1400 region and possibly the 1424 region before we get a sizable pullback. With 401K money coming in, we may not be able to get in at pullbacks at the 1366.80 or max. 1359 regions. Day-traders may have a light short but after Wednesday's action, it will be hard to do. (07/01) The close above DOW 10900 was very positive and now allows the higher target on the DOW to come in at 12,680. That translates at least 1540 on the S & P cash and possibly as high as 1588 on the S & P cash. That means the summer rally should go into full swing. We have been confident that the bonds would rally into July or even early August and that will support a stock market rally so we would buy the dips and continue to hold long funds. Our June 14 position trade long for mutual funds is looking much better now that all the doubt is gone after the post-FOMC rally. Look for support at DOW 10870 and resistance at 11116 as being key numbers. If we consolidate the next few days, we would expect to take-off after the holiday. BIGGER PICTURE: The technical breakout on Wednesday, June 30, helps eliminate all doubts about a summer rally. We have been feeling that the DOW needed one more new high--and looking at the yearly charts, a pattern completion in the 12,500-12,600 would be very complete. We will watch patterns but expect to at least be higher into the week of July 26 and we are open to further upside in August depending on where we are in the pattern. Once the new high comes in, we will get a nasty correction that will quickly go to DOW 9200 and probably last into November; we are open to a deeper correction but will not speculate about it until we can measure it. OEX NOTES: (07/01) Stand aside. OPTIONS TRADERS: We recommend that you switch to trading mini contracts on the S & P since options are so unforgiving. If you choose options, make sure you evaluate delta decay of options, manage your money and buy options that have enough time in them and do not trade against the major weekly chart trend. SEPT. T-BONDS WEEKLY CHART TREND: Bottoming and higher to at least 118.08. DAILY CHART TREND: Higher. TODAY'S EXPECTED DIRECTION: Higher. NEXT HOURLY CHART NEXT DAILY CHART NEXT WEEKLY CHART TURN: 7/2 H TURN: 7/19 H TURN: 8/99 H SHORT-TERM POSITION TRADER'S STRATEGY: Hold longs. DAY TRADER'S STRATEGY: Buy 115.10 mit with a 114.25 stop. Exit market on close. (07/01) We were correct in projecting a .25 point rate hike on Wednesday and that the market would rally on it. The explosion in bonds suggests continued upside movement to the 116.24 region, with first resistance at 116.12-116.14. Max. downside would be the 115.09 region. We could be lower on Friday into Tuesday, but overall, we suspect that we can continue buying pullbacks until we hit the 118.08 region. LONGER TERM (6/25) The minimum bounce on bonds would be back to the 118.08 region with a max. rally to the 120 region. The minimum time window is the July 19 area but early August is possible for a secondary target. If the market were to just continue falling here, we would expect a move to 104 but that appears unlikely over the next month.