Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mohammed U. Karkanawi who wrote (63775)	7/1/1999 6:42:00 PM
From: Mike M2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

MUK, the world has seen many new inventions / technologies that have transformed life, canals, railroads, interchangeable parts with guns lead to a revolution in manufacturing ,the auto, electricity, the mechanization of farming. One interesting thing that I heard on history channel was the invention of the radial saw tripled production at lumber mills now many take for lumber granted but it was vital to farming in the midwest for homes, barns, fences and railroad ties. Think of the vast acreage that was once grassland and buffalo now farmed. I wish that I could quote some productivity figures for the cotton gin , the reaper, and tractor but they are impressive I'm sure. Innovation is nothing new .While there are segments of the economy enjoying productivity gains there is much talk about a productivity boom for the whole economy but the numbers do not support the hype. If there is a productivity miracle why has it not shown up in company profits. In addition, even the reported productivity numbers pale in comparison with the gains in the US in the 20's and Japan in the 80s. The major problem facing the global economy is there is excess debt and capacity which IMO will lead to deflation. I'll see if I can find a url for some valuation extremes but basicly the market could decline 50% and still be the most expensive in history- or close enough to 50%. Mike

To: Mohammed U. Karkanawi who wrote (63775)	7/1/1999 7:30:00 PM
From: Mike M2	Respond to of 132070

MUK, members.aol.com the threads own Wayne Crimi has a good site this link shows the PE of the Dow back to the 20's . Keep in mind that in the past high PEs were seen only during recession -earnings were depressed. It is unprecedented to have such high PEs on PEAK earnings. unless you believe the business cycle has been tamed earnings , at some point, may decline substantially see on Waynes site how earnings have been cyclical Is it different this time ? NO WAY. DJIA earnings did not surpass the 1929 level until 1948! mike.