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To: Sam Sara who wrote (66006)	7/1/1999 9:29:00 PM
From: GST	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

David -- Don't sweat the FOMC -- sweat the bond market -- and not just economic data -- check corporate supply and international debt/currency moves. Fear higher long bond yields -- and expect them. We have not yet broken an uptrend in yields. The buying party is a little premature. People waited to buy and buy they will -- but the jury is out on whether this move is just the bulls snorting the same fairy dust as the cliff approaches.

To: Sam Sara who wrote (66006)	7/2/1999 12:29:00 AM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

I had suggested here that the fed might surprise on the "loose" side. The theory being that 1/4 would be enough, and more might be thought of as deflationary, strengthening bonds too much and lowering rates. The lower rates would be counter-productive to the ultimate goal. Sure enough, this is what happened. Bonds will go sideways, probably, keeping rates higher than they would be, imo, if 1/2 point or more had been done. AG is allowing the bond market to do it's job. It's a brilliant, hands off approach. Still, I think it clearly means that AG is just not as concerned as folks think about the stock market. From my regional perspective in Redmond, Wa, it apears to me that lots of folks are getting rich, and the speculation is out of control. This must not be as correct as it appears. I get hints that these concerns are overblown when I travel, or get specific info on others portfolio's, or lack thereof. Minor examples: I was in Kauai this week and RE prices are as low as 1990. The Hawaii hotel occupancy rate is at the the lowest levels since 1981. I saw a spectacular ocean front estate for 1.8 million; the same place would be 3.5 million in Bellevue, Wa on the lake. I know several people who got DESTROYED here today "investing" in Starbucks. They thought it was safe. It seems that AG might have concluded that lots of folks are getting rich alright, but not SO many that when they lose their asses they economy will tank. I conclude that he is smarter than me and so I am in his draft. My long preamble to the answer: imo, yhoo and bcst will be lower in the middle of the month than on the 6th, but that most of the nets will be hitting their month highs by Amzn's earnings. There is a clear pattern of sell offs right at earnings, unless there is a split. I'd expect weakness into a market low in October and a ferocious run from that low all the way into Yhoo's January report. By that time the nets will be hitting new highs, but most will be up about 30% year over year while business growth is 300%.

To: Sam Sara who wrote (66006)	7/2/1999 12:33:00 AM
From: H James Morris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

>>Most momentum players seem to have their strategy to be some variation of hold into early July, and sell off net stocks as August approaches. << DV, if your talking about momentum players? We have the best here in Mark Fowler. How he understands momentum is beyond me, but Vert is a wonderful example. Ps Forget EmployEase, or Abrx, when Flexenroll.com goes public, the analyst's will have a $1000ps price target.;-))