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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.T. who wrote (307)	7/2/1999 2:58:00 AM
From: Michael Watkins	Respond to of 19219

J.T., Well, will just have to let the market tell us what to do in the end, but my picture of 1999 is one of increasing uncertainty leading to the end of the year and at this point the extreme bullishness present is a red flag to me. We are back to having a market priced and primed for perfection, and most always people don't ever see perfection. What will they do when disappointed? Re VIX in '85, you are quite correct - during the 28% run up the VIX was very flat - didn't even change that much during the choppy period form Sept through the end of the year. However, the picture in July 96 looks more like ours now. Not identical, but similar - more volitility swings. Interestingly, July 1 was a local VIX bottom. Market dropped 10% over the next three weeks. 10/22/97 - VIX in a fairly tight and flat range for most of the year, prior to this had come down from a local high in Sept. 10% off the indexes over next few days. 7/20/98 - again, coming off a fairly flat range. 26% drop. Today, dropping quickly out of a three month flat range, looks to hit a 12 month low. As in prior examples, ranges and drop are below 200D MA of VIX. At any rate, I'm not suggesting that VIX is infallible or proves anything, but I found the investigation interesting and another heads up no matter what the direction. Michael

To: J.T. who wrote (307)	7/2/1999 8:43:00 AM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

Employment #'s were as follows: New jobs creation: 268,000 vs 220,000 street estimate Unemployment rate: 4.3% up +.01% from 4.2% Wages up .04% Bonds immediately went from + 3 ticks to -13 ticks in a heartbeat and S $ P futures went down from 2 points to down 6 points. NDX 100 futures down 13 points. S & P Futures now down only 1 point and no great market shattering # here we should see new highs today on DOW and no later than next Tues or Weds. Now S & P Futures +190 and NDX Futures -4 points. We could get ready to rock. This from MITA 307: <<I would place those odds very slim (say 10% chance) on a double top in the market. For the double top to occur, tomorrow's unemployment #'s would have to come in at something like 4% from 4.2%(highly improbable, but not impossible), and new non-farm job creation would have to be in the neighborhood of 350,000+ vs. consensus estimate of 220,000 new jobs. If this occurs, yes we could have this sharp swift downward jolt. But everything else has come up smelling like a rose. 7.30 Est time bright and early report. We are clear sailing if we get through this #.>> Best, J.T.