To: William H Huebl who wrote (41323 ) 7/2/1999 4:58:00 PM From: pater tenebrarum Read Replies (1) | Respond to
Bill, playing devil's advocate for a moment<g>: don't you think that all the major indices breaking out to new highs (and the rest playing catch-up) is a prelude to a gigantic blow-off? i know the sentiment measures are flashing a warning signal, but could it not be that those who predict the excesses to become much greater still are right? you know, with the 10-dma of the CBOE put/call ratio at 0,30, bullish advisors over 70% and the VIX in the low teens? you have to admit that everything aside from the sentiment data looks extremely bullish right now; new highs on decent volume, a new set of leadership, the nutz coming back to life, mutual funds raking in tons of cash, etc. it is really hard at this time to see where the doom and gloom scenario will get it's impetus from. what i simply can't see at this time is the sort of defining event that marks a top, you know, like the start of the russian crisis last year. at the moment, the market seems to take all kinds of news as a reason to go higher, be they good or bad. that's typical bull market behavior. today for instance, the jobs data which pointed to continued tightness in the labor market as well as accelerating wage inflation weren't even used as an excuse to take profits in a market that seems rather overbought short term. even the bond market shrugged the data off.
