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Technology Stocks : CheckFree Holdings Corp. (CKFR), the next Dell, Intel? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Benny Baga who wrote (7645)	7/2/1999 8:32:00 AM
From: AugustWest	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 20297

Hudson River Bank & Trust Company Introduces Internet Banking HUDSON, N.Y., July 1 /PRNewswire/ -- Hudson River Bank & Trust Company (Nasdaq: HRBT - news; HRBT) introduced today Internet Banking, for Retail and Commercial customers, through its web site hudsonriverbank.com. If the EBPP is powered by CheckFree, why can't we get a logo on the page like Verisign has on a number of participating sites? Like this one hudsonriverbank.com

To: Benny Baga who wrote (7645)	7/2/1999 8:34:00 AM
From: tktom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 20297

An Excellent description of Technical Analysis of CKFR from the Raging Bull: Real Time Quote Chart Free E-Mail Raging CKFR Links < Previous Respond Next > By: Briguy Reply To: None Thursday, 1 Jul 1999 at 6:54 PM EDT Post # of 255 Current Technical Analysis on CKFR... Well fellow shareholders, I do believe the selloff is over. While TA is not an exact science, it can give us short term indications where a stock is heading. Right now, current TA suggests CKFR is heading up again. Some numbers/facts for you all...based on a one month time window... 200 Day Moving Average: 29.52 50 Day Moving Average: 41.25 10 Day Moving Average: 31.08 Why are moving averages important? For starters, it gives us an idea where support and resistance is. However, once a breach of support happens, it's harder to tell where next support is. Also, when a stock falls below a support level, it then becomes resistance. 1st Support (50 day EMA): Was 41.25 but now becomes resistance. 2nd Support (200 day EMA- much stronger than first support): 29.52 Once again, CKFR fell below this key support number. Does it become resistance too? Yes and no. Today it proved to offer some resistance but very little. The fact that it closed above this number is very positive to TA investors. The key is whether we stay above it. Based on all the other TA indicators, I think it will. Resistance: Very weak at 31.08, stronger at 41.25. Personally, I don't think anyone can say for certain (we all can speculate) where support is at the current time. However, the fact that there were a large number of blocks in the last 3 days and the stock has continued to climb tells me CKFR is on the road to recovery. Lots of big block buys today! At least 3 in the 30,000 range. So who really cares as long as CKFR continues to climb. I will concede the price versus 20 day moving averages up until a few days ago indicated a sell signal. But, I think the selling is done folks. Nothing to worry about. MONEY FLOW: I like this indicator because it tells us if money is flowing in or out of a stock. The numbers aren't exactly the most important thing to focus on. What's important is the direction of the graph. From June 1 to June 21, MF was steady/even. From June 21 to June 28, the selloff began and the graph turned decidely negative/downward. June 28, MF hit bottom and has turned upwards/positive since which suggests that money has steadily flowed back into CKFR. This is a POSITIVE SIGN. ON BALANCE VOLUME: This is another indicator that is used in conjuction with MF. Usually one supports the other. In this case, OBV has the exact same pattern as MF which once again, shows OBV in an upward/positive trend since Monday, June 28. This confirms that there have been more buyers than sellers and supports the MF chart. Bullish sign! RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX (RSI): Another useful TA tool which gives you an indication if a security is overbought or oversold. A number above 70 clearly shows the stock to be overbought and usually precedes profit taking. A number at 30 or below shows a strong indication of a security being oversold and usually precedes buyers coming back in and a rally happening soon after. This last Monday, the 14 period RSI for CKFR was 25.13 which clearly indicated an oversold condition (well below 30). Accordingly, buyers have steadily moved back in. As of today, July 1, the RSI stands at 37.4, which still shows an oversold condition and is WELL below 70! In other words, this stock still has big upside potential before it could be considered overbought. This is a bullish sign for those who want to buy cheap. BOLLINGER BANDS: Have widened some lately which does indicate an increase in volatility. Right now CKFR is nearer to the bottom band which may mean more upside. 20 day bollinger bands indicating a HOLD. MOMENTUM: Has turned upwards/positive since June 24. Good sign! MACD: Bear signal the last several days. However, as you can see based on the last few days of volume and price movement, MACD indicator has been wrong. MACD HISTOGRAM: Definatley turning upwards. This is a bullish sign for investors. 50-100 DAY MACD OSCILLATOR: Indicates BUY/Bullish STOCHASTICS: Another tool that tells investors if a stock is oversold or overbought. Right now, stochastics clearly show an oversold condition. Stochastics are turning very bullish. What this means is there is currently little downside risk and much upside potential. I like what I see. VOLUME: Well, someone on Yahoo said it best, "Volume always precedes price." Right now, volume has been well above its averages and the stock has moved up the last 4 days- a VERY GOOD SIGN. 7 day average volume: 6,991,329- this is the average volume we've seen over the last 7 days. 13 week average volume: 1.5 million- this is the average volume over the last 13 weeks. PRICE/EARNINGS (P/E): Current P/E is 95x BOTTOM LINE? Fundamentally, CKFR is very sound IMO. Financials look very good. CKFR has a Net Profit Margin of 6.5% and a very low debt/equity ratio of 0.04%. CKFR also has 7 Strong Buys, 2 Buys and 2 Holds. I would anticipate one or two more analysts initiating coverage in the next 6 months as Online Banking/bill paying becomes more popular. The more the merrier. Why? Because the more analysts that cover a stock, the more money from said analysts company will flow in (or out) from investors. With that being said, I agree with JP Morgan that investors should take advantage of this weakness and aggressively accumulate the number one company in the EBPP business. The fact is, investors completely overreacted to the news about TEX. Accordingly, institutions took advantage of it and sold high and sold short. They sure made a killing. In closing, I believe the portal strategy will be huge for CKFR. An agreement with Yahoo! and the free trial will bring 1000's of new revenue generating customers (after the free trial is over). Once customers try and it become accustomed to it, the chances of them switching to someone else is almost nil- hence the 99% retention rate. With exposure (after the portal deals are announced) to over 100 million potential customers, the numbers are staggering regarding possible revenues. PRICE TARGET: $65. Remember one thing folks, when institutions set price targets, they do it based on future earnings revenues etc etc. Once these institutions see their target reached, many of them take money off the table. Be mindful of that when CKFR hit's 80 in the next 12 months (JP's price target). BUY NOW AND HOLD! Briguy