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Pastimes : The Naked Truth - Big Kahuna a Myth -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MythMan who wrote (50575)	7/2/1999 10:39:00 AM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 86076

fools travel in packs

To: MythMan who wrote (50575)	7/2/1999 10:51:00 AM
From: wlheatmoon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

UNCONTROLLED MANIA -ng- To: Uncle Frank (3303 ) From: LindyBill Wednesday, Jun 30 1999 5:03PM ET Reply # of 3370 Well, Frank, I started the month up 56% for the year. I ended this month up 119% for the year. That makes me up 63% on my original stake on Jan 1, 1999 FOR THE MONTH!. So, in 6 months, I have equaled what I did last year, (120%). What a month! I suspect that, percentage wise, I will never see its like again. To: LindyBill (3324 ) From: Uncle Frank Wednesday, Jun 30 1999 5:30PM ET Reply # of 3370 >> What a month! I suspect that, percentage wise, I will never see its like again. You've made that remark several times, and been dead wrong several times. You better stick with Gorilla investing and stay out of the crystal ball business, Bill. Frank

To: MythMan who wrote (50575)	7/2/1999 3:19:00 PM
From: Don S.Boller	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

"LOWER ON THE FOOD CHAIN THAN CAR SALESMEN".......many years ago (early 60's) - I quit law school to become a stock broker. Finding this out - my father, a top notch attorney, said to me, "Son, couldn't you have done something more legitimate like - selling USED cars?" Best, Don

To: MythMan who wrote (50575)	7/3/1999 7:56:00 AM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 86076

this guy was a grizzly bear till this week.... mmmm? all we need now is for you, me and fleck to start buying OEX calls and the world will end. Shepler Capital Management: Weekly Outlook for 7/6-7/9 '99 GREENSPAN'S GREEN-LIGHT In last weeks commentary we stated: "...the bullish alternative is also valid, and it calls for some potential residual weakness into this weeks Fed meeting, to be followed by a post Fed "relief rally" capable of acheiving new highs for the major indices... Seasonality favors a rally from late June through July expiration 7/16 +/- 2 days. Some of our shorter fixed cyles also call for a low around 6/29 to be followed by a rally into 7/22 +/- 1 week... a bond rally appears to be in the cards, and while we expect that rally, coupled with strong 2nd quarter earnings, to provide the fuel for a potentially powerful summer rally, we also expect that this rally we ultimately prove to be a fantastic selling opportunity..." There is no change to our intermediate-term outlook which proved to be a very accurate guide to last weeks action. We still look for a very powerful uptrend to be in place at least until July options expiration. And we see the very real possibility of a very strong rally or "up-crash" next week into the 7/7-7/9 timeframe. Our initial upside targets of Dow 11,500 and SPX 1400 appear have been to conservative, and it looks possible that the market could sprint ahead to the Dow 12,500-13,000 and SPX 1550-1600 area before this move is ultimately exhausted. As far as our longer-term outlook is concerned, last week's events and the action over the coming 4-6 weeks have the potential to signficantly alter our forecast. For one thing, while we were unsurprised by the 1/4 point rate hike which the Fed had telegraphed so well, we were very surprised by the switch back to a neutral bias. We attach a great deal of significance to this shift and we cannot over-emphasize its importance to the longer-term outlook. In our piece last week we cautioned that a barrage of rate hikes over the remainder of this year had the potential to bring the stock market to its knees. Now it appears that the Fed may very well be finished hiking rates for some time to come. The next Fed meeting does not occur until late August, and assuming that the Fed were again to shift back to a tightening bias at that meeting, the next meeting at which rates could rise would be in October. That is getting dangerously close to Y2K which may keep the Fed on the sideline for the rest of this year. Then next year is an election year, which again should keep the Fed on the sidelines if history is any guide. So, with the Fed on the sidelines, and the economies of the world picking up steam the longer-term outlook could be decidedly more bullish than most bears would care to ponder. Extreme overvaluation aside (and with all due respect to George who's work I greatly admire) the 1929 comparison appears to be running into some difficulties when one looks at market internals. Cumulative volume and breadth measures such as the A-D line are showing significant signs of improvement this year, as opposed to the deterioration present in 1929. In fact the A-D line broke out above it's downtrend line from its 1998 top this spring, and has pulled back to retest that downtrend line from above during this latest correction. Now the A-D line apears to be trending upwards again. This is a VERY bullish development. Also new highs versus new lows are showing a significant improvement of late. If these internal measures continue to show healthy improvement we will have to strongly consider the possibility that the high due in July will not be the final high for this year. The fact that the 4 and 8 year cycles are pointing hard up, and that the influential 9-month cycle has just bottomed would also tend to support such a conclusion. So, while it may be tempting to try picking tops at such high valuation levels we would caution bears not to "fight the tape" on this one. Sure the market is flashing short-term overbought signals, but in a strong uptend many overbought/oversold indicators will give numerous false sell signals, so we are taking such readings with a grain of sand for the time being. What would it take to get us growling like true bears again? Simple, a return to a Fed tightening bias, with more market unfriendly jawboning by Fed officials, coupled with a deterioration in breadth and volume measures. Unless and until these things happens we won't waste too much time trying to outsmart the market here. Instead we will partcipate in the "summer rally", let the "trend be our friend" so to speak, and re-assess the markets prospects come mid to late July... Oh, and by the way, a Happy 4th of July to all from Shepler Capital Management.