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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (6503)	7/2/1999 2:07:00 PM
From: Jeffrey D	Respond to of 15132

MrG, your posts are alway good but you have outdone yourself with this last one. A classic, which everyone should heed. I know I will. Happy 4th of July holiday to you. Thanks, Jeff

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (6503)	7/2/1999 2:23:00 PM
From: Wally Mastroly	Respond to of 15132

Mr GJ, Some Righteous Ramblings! All should heed indeed.... It might be a prudent time to take some profits. It does seem odd that Dr. Greenshades gave the market a new toy (i.e., by advertising the bias in real time), and then took the toy away from the children the first chance he got ??? As Justa has reminded us, Bob points out that it is what the Fed DOES, not what it says, that will matter most. Have a good holiday. Wally

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (6503)	7/2/1999 9:10:00 PM
From: Greg Jung	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Mr. GreanJeans. You forgot an additional sign of a speculative peak: investors who believe they can time the market and get out at the top Characterising the market by indexes, it will certainly correct hard and this will be taken by a minority of stocks (where the majority of new money has gone). The small-cap value, now getting phrased as "GARP" may also get hammered but as a group they bottomed in October and again in March/Feb to similar level (no index, just a lot of the stocks I've been watching). As the internuts got creamed Techs That Actually Earn Money picked up of the spring bottom and they are struggling to make a second leg. Meanwhile we picked up some real froth along the lines of the IPOs - not all internuts - so I think we are in for a few more months of tall tales as those invested in the "wish and a prayer" sectors try to justify insane market caps. I suppose if you're riding something like the Qs or SPY it may be ok to try to ride the wave to the "top" and let go at just the right time... very ambitious. You'd be better off finding a mix of equities that you can live with - at least under the forseeable circumstances.

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (6503)	7/2/1999 11:10:00 PM
From: Carl R.	Respond to of 15132

lawyers I know who believe they are really security analysts Hey wait a minute. I'm a lawyer. You mean I'm not a security analyst? Carl

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (6503)	7/4/1999 11:32:00 AM
From: Lars	Respond to of 15132

MrGreenJeans, >>> Finally, as Lars has pointed out when this bull run finally comes to an end there will be some real pain in this market. I know many people who have recently invested for the first time, many who have never been through a bear, many who believe the business cycle is dead, many who believe Greenspan will save the market if it falls by cutting rates, some who are buying houses at what is the top of the market, people on margin that should not be, people who don't know the difference between a bond and a stock, people who believe they have a right to the stock market gains they see on paper. Lemmings are giving me advice, the mother-in-law is an expert, lawyers I know who believe they are really security analysts, construction workers who think they are daytraders...to me it is beginning to look surreal. I often tell others not in the business this may not be the best time to lump sum in the market-their response is a smirk-they are probably thinking what does he know. When this market falls it is not going to be pretty. The lawsuits will fly because those "bull market geniuses" will sue claiming they were really misled. Stay tuned. >>> Excellent post. Mr. Market is gradually luring in the lemmings. I am quite comfortable not being greedy for another 5% -10% or so. With the current euphoria I see us hitting upwards of 12,000 or close to it in July. A 1,000 point move...no big deal as the lemmings say now. If earnings come through we are going to move severely higher too fast. >>> Don't feel bad when the bull market ends some real, very real money will be made by shorting on the way down. Get ready...I know you are... >>> Oh yeah. Those 12 or so months when the bear awakens will be wonderfully profitable. About the time no one wants equities and Joe Kernan is begging someone to watch him pull up charts I will be a big-time bullish 2 Beta Brinkerhead. The long term bull won't be over. We need a healthy purging right now though, IMHO. >>> Sorry for rambling. >>> You weren't rambling. It was a great post. One that will have to be referenced when Smoky the Bear wakes up.