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To: Alan Bell who wrote (6507)	7/2/1999 3:08:00 PM
From: Wally Mastroly	Respond to of 15132

The Portents of Inflation - Doesn't exactly answer your question, but: worth.com >..CIBCR's inflation barometer, a standard for most economists, uses only seven measures, all of which investors can easily track. A majority of these measures, listed below, must fall in concert for inflation to decline in six to nine months, as it has 11 times since 1949...< >..Since 1979, the center, founded by Geoffrey Moore, Alan Greenspan's college statistics professor, has been unerring in anticipating the business cycle, give or take six months...<

To: Alan Bell who wrote (6507)	7/2/1999 3:29:00 PM
From: MrGreenJeans	Respond to of 15132

CIBCR-Part II The Leading Inflation Index (LII) of the Columbia University Center for International Business Cycle Research: This index is composed of 7 economic statistics including the Journal of Commerce (JOC) of 18 commodities, the growth rate of import prices (less energy), the % of businesses reporting higher selling prices and the % of purchasing managers reporting rising prices. Future Inflation is considered likely when, (A) most of the seven indicators of the LII are increasing, (B) the duration of the increases must be persistent, three consecutive months and (C) the LII increase must be pronounced (>5%).