Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : IATV-ACTV Digital Convergence Software-HyperTV -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Larry Kagan who wrote (5367)	7/2/1999 2:42:00 PM
From: Mike Fredericks	Respond to of 13157

Mike, most people who've been in this stock for awhile or who have done their homework can be patient with the rollout and the expected earnings. My first IATV purchase was 1996. I have done more than my share of homework. My point (I'm sounding like a broken record) is that if you read the SEC filings, you see that starting late 1996, the "expected rollout date" is always 2 quarters or so away, and every time the original date gets near, the "expected rollout date" is pushed ahead so it's back to being about 2 quarters away. First it's the digital boxes weren't out there, then it's liberty slowing things down, whatever, I don't care. The damage done by waiting from 1996 to 1999 to rollout is strictly credibility damage. The product has likely improved as has the associated infrastructure. Better to put out a good product later than a bad product earlier. I'm ok with that. It's quite possible that the benefits of the delay outweigh the negatives. However the damage done by slipping at this point will be immense. First off, the stock will get pounded as all those who bought the stock without reading old SEC filings will have assumed the 3Q date is a good one. They'll see the CEO cashing out and they'll bail also. Second off, unlike 1996 there are actually competitors in this space. We can knock WGAT all we want, but they have customers and we don't. They're bringing in revenue and we're not. We can laugh at WINK's all-analog solution, but who did AT&T go with for their interactive advertising? The Fox Sports deal is a very lucrative one IMO, but we won't see one red cent until we roll out. Big old MSFT is waiting around the corner promising a 2Q00 release of their product. All the products can coexist, but if you're a content provider choosing your interactive solution, are you going to go with someone who is out there and has customers, or someone who has been promising a release for 3 years and hasn't shipped squat? I will conclude by saying that all signs point to a successful 3Q rollout. TVGIA has too much riding on their deal to let it fall apart, and they are targeting a labor day rollout and that's feasible based on my read of the situation. I have no idea what revenue IATV will gain from the TVGIA deal, however. The big event I'm waiting for is the Fox Sports rollout, the one that has been promised for years, the one that will be the big cash cow in the short term IMO. They have promised it over and over again and failed to deliver. If they fail here... If you cannot deal, then I suggest you sell your shares and buy something more predictable with a lower risk/reward. Or any stock where the CEO doesn't dump so much stock at a critical juncture. But seriously, after I have been accused of being short merely for posting facts about the company and pointing out the possible negatives, I post all of my IATV transactions here for all to see. I was down to 150 shares last week (I'm a grad student, 150 IATV shares was my entire "play" fund) sold 110 last week and the last 40 on Wednesday (11 and 11 7/8 so I missed the blip to 13), bought GOTO at 26 and 26 7/8. Will not hesitate to re-enter IATV once GOTO cools, because I firmly believe that IATV will make a jump straight to 20+ as soon as they put out a press release saying "First Interactive Sports Broadcast will be XXX on MM/DD/YY." -Mike