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Non-Tech : Wit Capital - The way of the future? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: eDollar.com who wrote (6070)	7/2/1999 3:35:00 PM
From: Topannuity	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 16809

Hold for long term your IPOs which pop 40% or more the first day. Jetison (perhaps after the "flip" period is over) those IPOs which performed poorly on their first day. Here's some interesting research to back the above recommendation... go to this link quote.com Note, the column all the way on the right is the 12 month performance of this cross section of IPOs. If you go down the list you'll see that nearly every IPO which was a loser at the end of the 12 month period, was an IPO which did NOT POP on the first day more than 40%. Meaning, if the IPO did not have enough initial interest to move big on the first day, it probably is NOT a good one to hold for the long term. Conversely, look at every IPO that popped MORE THAN 40% above its IPO pricing level on the first day of trading. The list includes: RNWK +43% VNWK +40% EXDS +84% ISSX +83% INKT +100% GCTY +119% EBAY +163% PCOR +124% IVIL +233% ZDZ +89% Now, review the charts of these stocks. You'll find that many of them dropped to or even below their IPO pricing level, some time after they IPO'd, when the market collapsed, like in August - October 1998. So they declined not because of company-specific factors, but because the market re-valued itself. Yet, nearly all these issues are hundreds of percent higher than their IPO levels after 12 months. So these "initial poppers" are the stocks to hold long-term, regardless of how they perform in the months following their IPO.