To: John Harton who wrote (6218 ) 7/5/1999 10:40:00 PM From: Berney Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 11051
JH, Glad you brought that one up. First, TM was trying to make a funny about PAIR. We finished writing off the last of the capital loss on it last year from my ill-timed entry in another life when I was an RIA and TM thought that "stock" was something you did to shelves. In any case, it wasn't a pleasant experience. At that time, I spent a lot of time on one of the PAIR threads, and we voted to change the symbol to PAIN. After the PAIR experience (and several others), I made two changes to the selection process that are in addition to the FA score. I would not add a Buy and Hold unless the EPS are expected to be greater this year than last year, and preferably greater next year as well. PAIR fails with 1998 EPS of .53 and projected 1999 and 2000 of .34 and .52, respectively. The other requirement applies to stocks with a market cap of $5B or so. For these stocks, the S&P rating must be B++ (average) or better. PAIR is NR (not rated), and, thus, would fail again. PAIR is caught in the vice of the regional Bells. Until they commit to the upgrade, it ain't going to happen for PAIR. Undoubtedly, the others saw what happen to BLS's stock a few months back when they noted that their EPS were going to be hurt by system upgrades. I fear if they don't move pretty soon, they are going to have lost the battle and the war. That is not to say that PAIR is not playable. Its moves are explosive and brief. Further, they generally come from breaking a pennant. The stock has been in a developing pennant since mid-May. The DTL of the pennant comes into play about $12 3/16 and the base is about $11. Longer term, the pivot points are $12.25 (long) and $10.75 (short). However, short-term it is very playable with an entry point of $11 with the goal of a 5% daily move. Thus, this is my view from the swamp. TB