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To: long-gone who wrote (36371)	7/2/1999 5:28:00 PM
From: Rarebird	Respond to of 116763

Y2K To Cause 10% of all Computers to Fail: Y2K To Cause 10 Percent Of All Computers To Fail - Report June 28, 1999: 5:55 p.m. ET LONDON, ENGLAND (NB) -- By Steve Gold, Newsbytes. A report just out from International Monitoring, a high-tech consultancy firm in London, says that its research has shown that all US imports will be badly hit by the Y2K problem. Nick Gogerty of the company told Newsbytes that the firm's research has concluded that, along with a 15-day delay in all types of product shipments as a direct result of the Y2K problem, the Y2K issue is also likely to cause multiple and major problems for IT systems. "Our calculations, which are conservative, show that around 10 percent of IT systems will be hit by the Y2K issue, to a greater or lesser extent," he said, adding that this is on top of an estimated 15 days delay in shipments on almost all products worldwide - a problem that will also be caused by the Y2K IT problem. Gogerty explained the report's calculations to Newsbytes. He said that basic IT programming principles suggest that, when Y2K problems are spotted by programmers and the software is reprogrammed, around 15 percent of the reprogramming will result in further bugs. "It's kind of bugs creating bugs, if you will," he said, adding that, even assuming that all Y2K first generation bugs are solved, then there will be a second generation of bugs amounting to 15 percent of the original volume of software problems. "Our research has reduced that figure to 10 percent, which we feel is a conservative figure," he said, adding that the firm's research took in data from 140 countries around the world. "Using this data, we built an economic model that integrated data on those countries' technological infrastructures, multiple PC environments and the economic profiles of the countries concerned," he said. "We assumed a best case scenario and drew up a smokestack model. The conclusion was that, even with massive Y2K remediation, there will still be major Y2K computer problems, allied with delays in transport of all commodities worldwide," he said. Gogerty, who is originally from the US and a veteran of the London financial services industry, as are his colleagues within the consultancy, said that the general conclusion was that there will need to be a 15-day stockpile of all goods into the US to compensate for the transport delays caused by the Y2K problem. International Monitoring's Web site is at intl-monitoring.com . Reported by Newsbytes.com, newsbytes.com . 16:42 CST (19990628/Press Contact: Nick Gogerty, International Monitoring +44- 171-373-2856/WIRES PC, BUSINESS, LEGAL/Y2KBUG/PHOTO) Copyright © 1999 CNN America, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.