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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HairBall who wrote (19304)	7/3/1999 10:53:00 AM
From: Robert Rose	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

<A reckoning is coming for this Market, exactly when, will be more obvious than most think! > Can you expound on this?

To: HairBall who wrote (19304)	7/3/1999 11:53:00 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Concur and well said. Still this "sentiment" makes trading right now on fundamentals and finding undervalued companies a losing game in comparison with Mo Mo investing. The over priced get over priced more, while the value stocks get more under valued. As I said, I can find stocks that are punished for having one slow quarter when the majority knows they will recover in the next 6 months yet even when the majority knows that many of the nuts will never turn a profit or if they will, it won't be for years and years down the road, they over pay by huge margins assuming someone else will over pay more. We used to poke fun at DELL but at least they had earnings and grew fast enough to keep the over valuation somewhat consistant until earnings finally slowed down and so did their rate of climb on stock price. I do believe that quasi fundamentals do return when a shocking event occurs but the effects do not completely disappear. Anyone that has read this thread more than a couple weeks knows my favorite stock to hate is MU. Now this stock went from the 30s to 80 a share because the fools thought MU would actually turn a profit consistantly even though they have never done so and never will. When reality started to sink in, it started dropping to around the 30s. They missed earnings as most did not expect except those with a brain, causing a brief drop to the 30s then a recovery to the low 40s again. Now I ask why? Their earnings release plainly stated that the future was bleak, they would lose even more money next quarter and interest rates are now higher on their massive loans than they were last quarter yet the stock trades up 30% from where they were before? It will take a HUGE shock and serious loss of cash, living standards etc before J6P gets a clue about true valuation. Until then, I think the mania will self perpetuate. It will take real and severe pain to wake this country up to the lie that is this stock market. I agree I will never go on vacation long, I do think though that when you can watch and guard your plays, the longs are unfortunately the way to play this most of the time. I make more on puts than I do on calls but that is just because I am more comfortable letting them run once they are going my way and I find tops easier than bottoms. I do beleive we are being allowed to stay in a bubble to bail out Europe and once the rest of the world gets it's act together, AG will pull the plus and try to slowly let the air out of this balloon. Of course once a rip in the rubber is made, it tends to rip farther than planned and a sudden gush of air is often let out instead with a loud pop being the result. PS - All my charts at all sites are updated including weeklies. I found it interesting that I either messed up somewhere or else the NASDAQ is too high already in relation to how much upside is left on the other indexes. Good Luck, Lee