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To: Milk who wrote (13285)7/3/1999 12:41:00 PM
From: goldsnow  Respond to of 17770
 


ANALYSIS-Yeltsin battles
on 3 years after election
03:42 a.m. Jul 02, 1999 Eastern

By Timothy Heritage

MOSCOW, July 2 (Reuters) -
Three years after he was
re-elected Russia's president,
Boris Yeltsin is still waging battles
on many of the same fronts as in
his hour of victory and the jury is
out on his eight-year rule.

''Let us not divide the country into
the victorious and the vanquished,''
Yeltsin declared the day after he
defeated Communist challenger
Gennady Zyuganov in an election
run-off on July 3, 1996. ''Together
we will revive Russia.''

Russia still faces deep political
divisions and the revival of the
country of almost 150 million
people, the world's second biggest
nuclear power, remains a distant
dream.

As a measure of the resentment
over Yeltsin's rule, which stretches
back to his first election victory in
1991, he has only recently
survived efforts in parliament to
impeach him.

Moscow is dependent on foreign
loans to stave off economic
disaster, most foreign investors are
still waiting on the sidelines and
violence remains a threat in the
North Caucasus, although the
Chechnya war raging three years
ago has ended.

Yeltsin, who ducked out of view
just before his election victory
because of a heart problem, is still
dogged by health problems. He
also has no obvious successor to
continue his policies when his
four-year second term ends a year
from now.

So many questions linger about the
achievements of the Yeltsin years
that newspapers are openly
speculating that he will consider his
job unfinished when his term ends
and that he may not be ready to
step aside.

Behind him stands a close circle of
aides, widely known as ''the
family.'' Russian media say these
aides are uncertain whom to back
to replace Yeltsin when his term
ends and are looking for ways to
extend the 68-year-old president's
hold on power.

''Since the family is unsure of its
choice of successor, it cannot help
but consider the possibility of
prolonging Yeltsin's presidential
term,'' said Vyacheslav Nikonov, a
political analyst who was part of
Yeltsin's campaign team in 1996.

One way could be to declare a
state of emergency because of
unrest somewhere in Russia,
perhaps in the North Caucasus,
and use this to justify the
cancellation of elections. Another
would be to push ahead with plans
to forge a union with neighbouring
Belarus and appoint Yeltsin as the
head of the new union.

The Kremlin denies it is planning
anything unconstitutional and says
the presidential election will go
ahead as planned.

Even so, Yeltsin has made clear he
is determined to do all in his legal
power to prevent the Communists
winning a parliamentary election
due in December and to remove
the threat of a Communist winning
the presidential poll six months
later.

The fact that the Communists
remain a force on the political
scene is a cause of chagrin for
Yeltsin.

The man who played an integral
role in consigning the Soviet Union
to the dustbin of history in 1991
won re-election in 1996 largely by
raising the spectre of the
Communists returning to power.
Many voters saw him as the lesser
of two evils.

Yeltsin wants to be seen as the
man who swept away Communist
rule and installed a democracy. He
can list as his achievements the fact
that Russia has not slipped into
civil war or broken up, and
elections have become the normal
practice.

Moscow has won membership of
the Group of Eight nations,
otherwise made up of seven rich
democracies. In the recent
Kosovo crisis, it played a key role
in negotiating peace.

But Yeltsin's critics say there are
more negative points than positive
ones from his rule. Crime and
corruption are rife, and most
ordinary people have suffered
hardship while a lucky few have
amassed huge fortunes, often by
illegal methods.

The Communists say he wants to
ban their party, that he is the main
factor of instability and that nothing
will improve in Russia while he
remains president.

Yeltsin is also struggling in his
efforts to be remembered as the
man who put Russia on the road to
prosperity. He may eventually gain
that honour from historians, but
many Russians blame him for the
hardships endured under economic
reforms.

His main economic achievements,
reduced inflation and a stable
rouble, were at least temporarily
swept away in the crisis that hit
Russia last August.

That has left his popularity ratings
in single figures and, with his health
susceptible, it may be hard for him
to lift those ratings in what should
be his last year as president.

Copyright 1999 Reuters Limited