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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pz who wrote (47321)	7/3/1999 12:50:00 PM
From: Timelord	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

pz - <<Only a FOOL would sell their oil service holdings at this point imho.>> You give me a guarantee that any oil service stock I buy today won't go back and test even its latest lows, and I'll load up the boat and hold until the cows come home. Some of us old FOOLS have tire tracks across our backs, and NO tolerance for further risk. Or perhaps you'd like to buy some of my FGI which I still hold at an average cost north of $40, or perhaps some of my "can't lose" PTEN shares that I believe I paid around 22 for? No? Didn't think so. Yes sir, I guess I wasn't a FOOL because I held those shares come hell or high water. And guess what, both HELL and HIGH WATER came, and this FOOL got burned and drowned. I love this sector, but you'll excuse me if I use some "buy low, sell high" common sense, and maybe do it a couple of times as prices cycle up and down. Its all about making money, and that's real hard to do when 50-60% of your capital FOOLISHLY disappears. Excuse my impassioned response, but it was precisely this sentiment expressed in your post that was rampant back in late '97, early '98, that led to a year of pain that I'd rather not have lived through. Yes, the sector has been beaten to a pulp and its prospects look fantastic. I'm overjoyed to be back in the oil patch, and even happier with the gain I made on my RIG shares last week, and the gain I anticipate on my NE shares when I sell them next week. And I look forward to repeating this magic on the next cycle. There's a lot of new investors joining us that haven't had the pleasure of watching their life savings go poof, so lets not start calling people FOOLS who wisely choose to follow the old maxim of "Never going broke taking a profit." We now return you to your regular programming... Alex

To: pz who wrote (47321)	7/3/1999 1:43:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

PZ - don't sell out your Oilpatch holdings - rotate into the ones making $ .... E&P's are ''still'' Oilpatch stocks PZ (VBG). I am not saying sell; I am saying R O T A T E !!! You make my entire point with that news byte clip; ie: ''BLOWOUT"" Rig counts... well, PZ - the writer did use the term ''BLOWOUT" - but guess what, rig count and dayrates are actually NOT ''blowing out... not even close to where they were, or where they need to be to move dayrates up. There is going to be terrible quarter, over quarter and year over year comparisons in the driller and service stocks earnings releases ! - terrible. Every single oil analyst and even the industry itself uses RDC's CEO Palmer's number of 150 + GOM rigs needing to be back to work, before dayrates can turn upward. I'll even be flexible - at 135+ and trending solidly, week to week - I'd be buying the drillers if we were even there... but, we are NOT even close... from SSB: << Offshore drilling companies are expected to report year/year EPS declines averaging 86%, and sequential declines of 33%. * Rig utilization has slumped to 74% from 78% in the first quarter, continuing to put pressure on day rates. >> I am not saying ''short'' the OSX, or that we are going to see new bottoms - not at all. We may see the OSX 60's again, and very likely will see at least a 15% shakeout selloff imho. I'm just saying that a shakeout attempt is coming, the Street is on record on their intentions of shorting a Crude breakout over $20 and even the OSX itself coming off of the immenient poor earnings reports of Q2. The timing of this quarters earnings release into a Crude Oil breakout - will NOT be met with what most posters here are thinking... The Street will sell into strength and then short Oil's breakout. Given the bad earnings #'s - even at the very best; there is nothing to fundamentally support any major upside OSX breakout nearterm imho. It is NOT a question of the OSX being a bad investment - it is a matter of the E&P's having the same discoutned valuations, if not even more so - but; most importantly, they have rising fundamentals and momenteum in cash flows and earnings & quarter, to quarter and year over year comparisons. The comparison's on a fundamental and momenteum basis of the E&P's to the driller & service stocks is so gaping; that this is an individual investors anomaly dream opportunity imho. The thought is not that the OSX will not move up through year end, it will; but rather that it will not move up to the degree of select E&P small/mid cap companies. Also; the land drillers are priced at where they were with much, much higher earnings; the forward looking expectations are arguably near fully priced into the land drillers - there is little room for disappointment in NBR UTI PTEN etc... look at the earnings numbers on where these stocks were when they had these valuations the last time and where they are now... they are optimistically, enthusiastically and aggressively priced here imho. .... hey, only time will tell. (VBG) !

To: pz who wrote (47321)	7/3/1999 3:13:00 PM
From: upanddown	Respond to of 95453

Blowout Rig Numbers - US +17; Land +20; Texas +13 EOM Paul, the way the BHI counts were listed by that post were really not balanced and hardly a blowout. What was not mentioned was Canada down 26, North America down 9 and the Gulf down 2. At the same time, I can't agree with Slider's idea of waiting for 135-150 rigs working in the GOM. I think anyone waiting for those numbers will miss 90% of the move and all the easy money especially if he is talking about the BHI count of rigs actually working (97 -2) rather than the ODS count of rigs under contract (119 -1). Any upturn in utilization combined with oil prices near current levels and the street will ANTICIPATE improved fundamentals. We are so domestically oriented here. The API/EIA numbers can be skewed by import fluctuations that have nothing to do with domestic supply/demand. We should also remember that energy is a vast, worldwide, multi-trillion $ business and that less than 2% of world production comes out of the GOM. I've got lots of PKD and agree with you on its prospects. Actually much more than a domestic land outfit since less than 10% fit that category. Scattered all over the world with 40% of their rigs in the water. Talk of bankruptcy but it has survived 65 years...I'll take my chances for a couple of months.<g> John